YB Pro stock pitches (Tue, May 14)

Hello!

Big Announcement: I’ve put some money in a tracking portfolio to copy the trades of the Top 10 Investors (based on the average returns of their stock pitches) in my database. Any time a Top 10 Investor buys/sells a stock, I will buy/sell the same stock in the YBR Portfolio and alert you in this newsletter!

I’ve been copying the top insider trades in my CEO Watcher newsletter for the last 6 months and absolutely crushing the market over any timeframe (image below). And now we can copy the top investors from all over the internet in the YBR Portfolio!

This portfolio is very expensive to run due to the data requirements for calculating returns for the 1,000+ investors in my database (it’s institutional quality data straight from S&P), so the YBR Portfolio will only be available to Premium subscribers (upgrade link).

I’m very excited about this as Yellowbrick was already the only service collecting all of these trades from fund letters, analyst reports, blogs, etc, but now it is also the only service calculating the returns to identify the top investors and then copying their trades.

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I’ve just added 36 new pitches to the website.

As always, you can visit the website at https://www.joinyellowbrick.com (if you are a premium member, make sure to login so you get the most recent pitches).

If you have upgraded to premium and currently receive the morning email that is sent to free subscribers and don’t want to receive it any more since you are getting this email, just reply to this and let me know and I’ll take you off it.

Thanks for reading!

Connor (founder of Yellowbrick and CEO Watcher)

Table of Contents

• YB Portfolio

• A couple of the most interesting new pitches

• All of the new stock pitches

YB Portfolio

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A couple of the most interesting new pitches

Company: ASIA PILE HOLDINGS CORPORATION ($5288.T)
Author: @japanstonks (Twitter)
Sentiment: bullish
Category: Growth
Market Cap: JPY 36.83B
Given Upside: 14%
5288.T: Concrete pile specialist w/ rising margins amid mkt slowdown due to proprietary Smart-MAGNUM method. 44.9% 3yr OPM CAGR vs 5.7% rev. Catalysts: Smart-MAGNUM adoption, recovery in logistics/semi/urban devt, Vietnam & Myanmar. Risks: soft demand overseas (15.8% rev), rising costs. 0.75x PB, 8.7x PE, 5% DY. Potential re-rating to 1x PB = 25% upside, downside shielded by yield & cheap val. Bullish on Smart-MAGNUM's global prospects. (link)

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Company: Ducommun Incorporated ($DCO)
Author: Directionally Correct Research (Blog)
Sentiment: bullish
Category: Special_situation
Market Cap: USD 833.38M
Given Upside: 44%
DCO: Rejects $60 (10x '24 EBITDA) PE bid. Standalone: 3.5% rev CAGR to '27, 400bps margin expansion credible given aero recovery & cost cuts. Deal: CEO incentives now aligned (+$7M), owns 2%+. Margins: 9.7% in '17 to 13.4% in '23 despite Boeing issues. Mispriced at 9.5x EBITDA. (link)

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Company: Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. ($MEC)
Author: Riverwater Micro Opportunities Strategy (Fund letter)
Sentiment: bullish
Category: Special_situation
Market Cap: USD 328.22M
Given Upside: N/A
MEC: Peloton contract disruption compensation upcoming, providing significant financial uplift. New factory in 2023 complete, with majority of CAPEX behind them. Anticipating substantial FCF increase in 2024, enhancing operational and financial flexibility for a promising year ahead. (link)

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Company: WINPAK LTD ($WPK.TO)
Author: Slow Turtle (Blog)
Sentiment: bullish
Category: Value
Market Cap: USD 2.92B
Given Upside: 39%
WPK.TO: Leading packaging co w/ strong margins & returns. 75% rev indexed to raw mat, 90% from food/healthcare. Organic growth 6% historically from volume/price. Disciplined capital allocation: 50% OCF to capex, 20% to divs, 4% M&A. Trades ~7% FCF yield +6% growth = 13% return. Initiating buyback at 30%+ discount to fair value. (link)

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Company: Xponential Fitness, Inc. ($XPOF)
Author: @BeenThereCap (Twitter)
Sentiment: bullish
Category: Turnaround
Market Cap: USD 453.09M
Given Upside: 217%
XPOF crashed 30% on DOJ probe of misstatements & CEO firing. Concerns overblown - issues isolated to minor chains (7% of biz). Core brands (Club Pilates, Pure Barre, Stretch Lab, Cycle Bar) strong. If metrics real, fair value $30+. Uncertainty = opportunity. Buying at $7.50-$9. (link)

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All of the new stock pitches