YB new stock pitches (Wed, Nov 20)

The author has taken a leveraged position in iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by purchasing 275 January 2027 $30 call options at a cost basis of $35, reduced to $34.30 by selling December $70 calls for $0.70. This means that at $IBIT price of $64.30, they are in the money. This strategy provides exposure to 27,500 shares, 50% more than buying shares outright. The plan is to sell monthly out-of-the-money calls, targeting $0.70/month premium to lower the cost basis to $46 over 27 months. The worst-case scenario is IBIT falling below $30 by January 2027, resulting in a total loss minus collected premiums. The author believes Bitcoin will be significantly higher by then, citing factors such as government buying, Michael Saylor's additions, and fixed supply. This options strategy allows for conservative yet aggressive positioning, with the potential to close the trade profitably if Bitcoin rises over 30% in a month.

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FTC Solar (FTCI), a U.S.-based provider of solar tracker systems, faces challenges but offers significant upside potential. With a $2bn backlog ($513M contracted), FTCI is poised to benefit from five growth drivers: increased renewable adoption, solar's rising share, utility-scale project prevalence, tracker system adoption, and 2P configuration preference. The company has expanded internationally, developed panel-agnostic trackers, and launched a 1P offering to address backlog conversion hurdles. A margin turnaround is expected by 2025 through cost-reduction initiatives and better overhead absorption. Trading at a discount to peers, FTCI has an 86% upside potential at 1.0x sales, with M&A potential. Risks include policy headwinds and liquidity concerns, though the company has recently strengthened its capital position with a $15mm promissory note. The stock's current low expectations offer room for positive surprises as the company delivers accelerating results.

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Array Technologies (ARRY), a leading solar tracker manufacturer, is currently undervalued at 1x P/S and 7.8x P/FCF, despite demonstrating strong FCF generation even with a 37% revenue drop. The company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing energy demand driven by AI adoption, solar's status as the cheapest energy source, and the Inflation Reduction Act's $50 million in benefits. Concerns about Trump's impact on renewables are likely overblown, as solar thrived during his previous term. ARRY maintains stable margins, positive profitability, and manageable debt with a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.14x. The company's main competitor, NEXTracker, trades at 2x P/S, indicating potential upside for ARRY. With a projected 50% CAGR over three years and a conservative 12x P/FCF multiple, ARRY presents a compelling investment opportunity. Risks include interest rates and policy changes, but the current valuation provides a margin of safety.

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