YB new stock pitches (Wed, Apr 16)

Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW) is an insurance holding company with three main segments: a legacy life insurance and annuity business in run-off, CareScout (a long-term care startup connecting patients with caregivers and offering LTC insurance), and an 80% stake in publicly-listed Enact Holdings (mortgage insurance provider). Trading at a P/B of 0.3x and P/E of 8.8, GNW has a market cap of $2.6B and enterprise value of $3.8B. Notably, the company's 80% stake in Enact Holdings alone is valued at approximately its entire enterprise value, suggesting significant undervaluation. Over the past two years, GNW has used its strong free cash flow to invest in CareScout and repurchase about 15% of its outstanding shares, a capital allocation strategy the company intends to maintain. This presents a potential HoldCo arbitrage opportunity, particularly for investors who can accurately value CareScout, which likely has positive worth.

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BioAge Labs (BIOA) presents an opportunity at a significant 80% discount following its obesity drug failure, with a $150M market cap but holding $330M in cash ($10/share) and a valuable NLRP3 CNS-penetrant inflammation drug asset. The company recently secured a Novartis partnership worth $20M upfront plus $530M in potential milestones. NLRP3 programs are highly valued targets that have fetched hundreds of millions from pharmaceutical giants like Novartis and Novo Nordisk for treating various inflammatory diseases. BioAge plans to file an IND for its NLRP3 inhibitor in the second half of 2025 and begin Phase 1 trials in the first half of 2026. With a price target of $7, the stock is trading at about half its cash value, creating a defensive 'cigar butt' investment opportunity that offers both balance sheet protection and future growth potential through its new lead program and anti-aging platform, which may benefit from the appointment of longevity advocate Jim O'Neill to HHS.

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Thor Explorations (THX.V) is a West African gold producer with its flagship Segilola mine in Nigeria, producing 85,000 oz annually at an industry-low AISC of $765/oz in 2024. The company boasts exceptional financials with a 69% EBITDA margin, 8% dividend yield, debt-free status, and trades at just 2.1x EV/EBITDA and 3.2x P/E. Thor is aggressively exploring to extend Segilola's mine life beyond 2027, with promising underground drilling results, while simultaneously developing the Douta project in Senegal, which could potentially yield 100,000 oz/year with a ten-year mine life. The company has also expanded into Côte d'Ivoire and begun lithium exploration in Nigeria. At a base case gold price of $3,200/oz, Thor could reach C$1.75 per share, representing a 192% upside from current levels. Key risks include Nigeria's jurisdictional challenges as a new mining destination, Segilola's limited current mine life (through 2027), and gold price volatility, though the company's low-cost operations provide significant margin protection even in lower gold price environments.

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