YB new stock pitches (Tue, Feb 11)

Smith & Wesson (SWBI) is a firearms manufacturer trading at a price implying a 16.3% IRR through F27. Alternative data suggests an 11.5% Q3 '25 revenue beat, countering lowered management guidance. The new 1854 lever-action rifle is expected to drive 30%+ long gun revenue growth through F27, with positive feedback from retailers. Improving supply chain dynamics are anticipated to boost gross margins to 30%+ and reduce inventory. The company's flexible manufacturing model allows responsiveness to demand surges, potentially strengthening market share. Risks include regulation, volatility, and supply chain issues, mitigated by a Republican-majority Supreme Court, manufacturing services revenue, and pricing power. The stock has a $13.43 price target. Further research areas include developing an econometric model for firearm demand, estimating relative pricing power, and analyzing competitive dynamics in the pistol market.

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SmartRent, Inc. (SMRT) is a subscription software business for multifamily properties, trading at $1.33 with a market cap of $256M and $163M in net cash. With a TEV of $92M, it trades at 0.5x sales, 1.2x subscription sales, and 1.8x subscription gross profits. The company has $75M in annualized subscription sales and $50M in subscription gross profits. An activist investor, Land and Buildings, remains involved despite a 50% decline in stock price. The stock's downside is protected by its large cash position (64% of market cap) and sticky subscription revenues. A potential takeover could yield 2x to 5x the current price, with a valuation of 10-20x subscription gross profits suggesting a price target of $3.50 to $6 per share, representing 263% to 450% upside. The company's install base is described as very sticky with essentially 100% retention.

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Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (STB.VN), a large Vietnamese bank, is nearing the end of a 10-year restructuring process that began in 2017. The key catalyst is the upcoming auction of a 32.5% stake held by the founder of Southern Bank, which was seized by regulators. This sale could lead to significant provision reversals, estimated at VND17.5 billion over three years, and improved financials post-restructuring. Currently trading at 1.3x book value and 7.3x P/E, STB has potential for a 2x upside within 24-36 months. The bank has made substantial progress in reducing non-performing loans and increasing loan loss reserves. With a current book value of VND53,481 billion, projections suggest it could reach VND103,981 billion by 2027. The stock price could potentially reach VND66,187 to VND110,312 by 2027, depending on the price-to-book multiple. Risks include emerging market exposure and the financial sector's inherent volatility.

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