YB new stock pitches (Thu, Mar 13)

Dun & Bradstreet (DNB), a provider of commercial data with a market cap of $3.8B, is currently undergoing a strategic process expected to conclude by the end of Q1. The company trades at an attractive 9x EV/EBITDA multiple for a recurring revenue data business. Veritas Capital is rumored to be in talks to acquire DNB for approximately $12.25/share. Cannae Holdings (CNNE), which owns about one-third of DNB, could use a potential sale as a catalyst to close its NAV gap. Management projects $955-$985MM in adjusted EBITDA by 2025, with a more conservative estimate of $800MM in true EBITDA. The current market price of $8.50/share presents an interesting event-driven setup, with potential upside if a deal materializes and limited downside if it fails. Risks include further market selloffs and slow growth, as evidenced by the recent quarter's performance. DNB's history of private ownership and leveraged finance familiarity may facilitate deal financing.

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ContextLogic Inc. (LOGC) has transformed from an e-commerce company to a cash-rich shell with $2.7 billion in Net Operating Losses (NOLs). The company's $161 million sale of its Wish platform to Qoo10 preserved its NOLs and cash position. BC Partners' strategic investment of up to $150 million in convertible preferred units values the NOLs at approximately $210 million, significantly higher than the market's current valuation. With $159 million in liquid assets and a market cap of $180 million, LOGC appears undervalued. The company now has access to up to $300 million for potential acquisitions across various sectors. A covered call strategy, selling $7 July calls for $1.10-$1.30 premiums, offers additional income potential. The investment is positioned as a relatively safe bet amid political uncertainty, with more upside potential than downside risk due to its cash reserves and flexibility for strategic acquisitions.

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Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) is trading in an information vacuum due to restated financials expected in 8 weeks. Post-restatement, the company trades at '26e <3x EV/sales and ~18x EV/EBITDA, with ARR growth >30% in 2025 and >25% in 2026. Gross margins are expected to reach 65-70%, with FCF breakeven in 2025. The new CEO and CRO from Motorola Solutions are implementing key initiatives: driving Express new unit bookings, launching used unit subscriptions, cross-selling Expedite, discontinuing the negative gross margin Purchase model, and reducing operating expenses. Catalysts include expedited cross-selling, used unit sales, and channel expansion. The company's primary product, Express, competes with Ceia's Opengate but offers better performance and lower false positive rates. Risks include sales execution and potential competition. The stock has potential to reach $4.50-$7 per share based on various scenarios, with a possible acquisition by Motorola Solutions as a speculative outcome.

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