YB new stock pitches (Mon, Jan 6)

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) provides EPC services for energy infrastructure, primarily LNG storage and terminal solutions. With a $1.4B backlog and 2025 revenue guidance of $900-950M, the company is poised for growth. A potential Trump administration rollback of LNG regulations could unlock hundreds of millions in stalled projects. The historical NTM Revenue/Backlog ratio of 1.3x implies potential revenue of $1.8B, double the current consensus. Management expects to return to profitability in 2025, with a likely upward guidance revision in Q1. The stock appears undervalued given its exposure to natural gas and power markets, which are currently in high demand due to data center power needs. Despite its correlation with the Russell 2000, MTRX stands to benefit significantly from a Trump administration. The company has a healthy balance sheet with no leverage, and earnings are expected in early February.

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Pacific Current Group Limited (PAC.AX) has filed an EGM notice for a buyback (BB) at $12 per share, with uncertainty surrounding major shareholders' participation. The current NAV is estimated at $14.5, potentially rising to $16.7-$17 post-BB. The BB is likely to succeed due to expected participation from retail investors, partial institutional tenders, and large holders. Post-tender, the company appears to be in wind-down mode with few active investments remaining after recent sales and redemptions. The opportunity presents a potential 15% gross return over 4-6 months, offering a low-risk, liquid trade with downside protection. While not promising triple-digit gains, the annualized returns at a post-BB price of $13.5 are considered attractive.

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Applied Energetics (AERG) is a leader in ultra-short pulse laser (USPL) technology for defense against hypersonic missiles, drones, and sensor-driven threats. The company's recent MOU with Kord Technologies validates its technology and positions it as a complement to continuous wave laser systems. AERG has ongoing contracts with the Marine Corps, Army, and Navy, demonstrating its progress and strategic importance. The company's low Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) requirements and high precision make it uniquely suited for modern battlefield needs. AERG's potential valuation ranges from $1.4B to $14B+, comparable to peers like Epirus and Anduril. Key catalysts include successful field tests, partnerships, contract expansions, and a planned Nasdaq uplisting in 1H25. Risks involve funding, execution, competition, and adoption delays. The space-based opportunity for USPL is estimated to be 10x greater than terrestrial applications. Despite its potential, AERG remains undervalued due to its public status, short-selling exploitation, and competition from legacy technologies.

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