YB new stock pitches (Mon, Apr 28)

Backblaze (BLZE), a $250 million cloud storage provider trading 71% below its 2021 IPO price, faces serious allegations of accounting fraud and financial manipulation in lawsuits from two former senior employees. These suits claim founders aggressively sold shares through 10b5-1 plans against expert advice, with one co-founder stating he wouldn't regret selling 'if BLZE goes straight down to zero.' The company allegedly pressured employees to certify 'inaccurate' financial statements, sent 'highly inflated cash flow forecasts' to auditors, and conducted an undisclosed internal investigation. Backblaze capitalizes an unusually high percentage of software development costs (9.8-14.4% of revenue versus 2.1% peer average), potentially masking losses, and recently hired a CFO from Beachbody, a multi-level marketing company whose stock fell 91% during his tenure. Despite positioning itself as an AI beneficiary, former executives and competitors claim Backblaze offers an undifferentiated, commoditized storage solution, with Wasabi confirming it has taken 'at least half a dozen' AI customers from Backblaze in recent months. Since its IPO, Backblaze has reported losses every quarter while diluting shareholders by approximately 80%.

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Antin Infrastructure Partners, a leading infrastructure private equity firm, trades at 10x earnings with a 7.3% dividend yield, representing significant undervaluation in a transitional period. Fund V closed at €10.2 billion (56% larger than Fund IV) with strong geographic diversification as two-thirds of capital now comes from North America. 2024-2025 are transition years with extended investment periods amid slow M&A activity, though deployment continues across three main strategies. Carried interest potential of €520 million (vs. €1.7bn market cap) represents substantial future earnings not reflected in the current price. With €389 million in cash, no debt, and the firm positioned as one of the global top 10 infrastructure managers, Antin offers an asymmetric opportunity with a price target of €13.14 (35% upside) as transaction activity normalizes and fundraising resumes in 2026-2027. Key risks include execution of capital deployment in 2025 and low liquidity due to concentrated ownership.

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Siltronic AG (WAF.F) is one of only five global producers of hyper-pure silicon wafers and the only Western-based manufacturer, creating a strategic advantage amid supply chain fragmentation. Trading at 6.18x EV/EBITDA with projected 2025 revenue of €1.41B and EBITDA margins of 22-27%, the company operates in an oligopoly selling non-substitutable inputs essential for all modern electronics. HAL Trust, a respected European capital allocator, recently increased its stake from 9.7% to 15.1%, signaling strong conviction. A Monte Carlo simulation exploring 10,000 potential outcomes indicates 70-100% upside potential versus minimal downside at the current €34.50 share price. Growth drivers include expanding end markets in AI, servers, electric vehicles, and industrial automation, while risks include high capital requirements, customer concentration, cyclical exposure, and geopolitical tensions. The author took a 1% position at €35.1 per share on April 23, 2025, viewing it as a short-term market mispricing rather than a long-term holding.

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