YB new stock pitches (Fri, Jan 31)

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) is currently trading at 6x NTM EBITDA, significantly lower than its peers' mid-teens multiples. The company's core franchise, Club Pilates, which accounts for 50% of system-wide sales, is experiencing mid-teens same-store sales growth. With nearly 1,000 new units in the pipeline across its three main franchises, XPOF shows strong growth potential. The stock has been impacted by a short report, primarily focused on concerns about the ex-CEO, who has since departed. New management is viewed as promising, and the company has $160 million in NOLs. If XPOF can overcome its past issues and achieve a valuation closer to its peers, the stock could potentially increase 2-3x. However, risks include short-term volatility and ongoing headline risk. Investors may have opportunities to buy XPOF at lower prices due to potential future stumbles, but the underlying business quality suggests it could be mispriced at current levels.

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Fevertree Drinks PLC (FEVR.L), the leading premium mixer brand, presents an attractive investment opportunity with potential 85% upside. The company dominates the global premium carbonated mixer market, holding top positions in the UK, Europe, and US. Despite recent challenges from inflation and a weaker consumer environment, Fevertree is rebuilding margins through production localization, cost optimization, and organic growth. The business has successfully diversified its portfolio beyond tonics, adapting to local market preferences. With a 5.7% 10-year sales CAGR forecast and EBITDA margins expected to recover to 26%, the company's DCF fair value is estimated at £12 per share. Key growth drivers include US market expansion, European distribution improvements, and potential in underdeveloped Asian markets. Risks include changing alcohol consumption trends, competition from new entrants, and pricing pressures. The founder-led management team maintains a consistent strategy focused on building on-trade sales and expanding geographically. While industry headwinds exist, Fevertree's strong brand position and growth potential in underpenetrated markets support a positive outlook.

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I use Interactive Brokers link to trade international and OTC stocks (if you can’t trade them in your current brokerage)

PLAID, Inc. (4165.T) is Japan's leading marketing automation SaaS company, growing ARR by 20%+ annually with a Y13.5M ARPC. Trading at 3.1x EV/TTM ARR versus peers at 5x+, it offers 60-90% upside potential. The company has shifted focus to large accounts, improving NRR to 111.4%. Risks include lower upsell/cross-sell potential and market size uncertainty. A 10% price hike for 80% of ARR will impact FY25 and FY26 financials. Plaid's consulting arms, Studio Zero and Plaid Alpha, aid in customer acquisition and retention. Competition includes Appier Group, Adobe Marketo, and Salesforce Marketing Cloud. Management aims for 20-30% annual revenue growth, prioritizing expansion over profitability. The estimated fair value is Y1,400-Y1,650 at 6-7x EV/TTM ARR, based on projected 20% annual ARR growth and improving profitability over the next five years.

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