YB new stock pitches (Fri, Dec 13)

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is trading at an 87% discount to its sum-of-the-parts valuation, offering significant upside potential. The company's CSI Solar segment targets 40%+ net income growth by 2025, with strong storage business offsetting weak module pricing. Recurrent Energy is shifting to a build-hold model, with a likely US IPO within two years. CSIQ is investing in US manufacturing to avoid tariffs and diversifying globally to reduce dependence on any single market. Key catalysts include the growing storage business, Recurrent Energy's business model shift, and potential US IPO. Risks involve China's overcapacity and US policy uncertainty. The company derives only 20% of revenue from the US and has 30% of its North American project pipeline. CSIQ's valuation compares favorably to peers like Jinko Solar (JKS) and Daqo New Energy (DQ). Improved financial disclosures and investor communications could help unlock value by providing better visibility into the storage and utility segments.

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IonQ (IONQ) is trading at a $7B valuation with $50M in annualized revenue, half from hardware. Their 36-qubit Forte machine rents for $7,000/hour on AWS, with a 100-qubit Tempo model expected next year. IBM offers larger, cheaper machines with better transparency. Quantum supremacy is likely 10+ years away, with 1 million qubits needed to crack 2048-bit RSA encryption. IonQ's ion trap technology may struggle to scale due to engineering challenges. The quantum computing race has numerous competitors, including private and captive teams. Scaling from 100 to 1 million qubits could take 28-70 years, making it difficult to predict the winner. Applications beyond encryption are uncertain, and the industry may need to identify a crucial primitive use for quantum computers. The competitive landscape could shift dramatically before practical applications emerge, and encryption standards may evolve to post-quantum cryptography, potentially diminishing the value of decryption capabilities.

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Velan Inc. (VLN.TO), trading at 4x EBITDA compared to nuclear peers at 20x, is positioned as the best nuclear play amid growing global demand. The U.S. aims for 60x nuclear growth in 25 years, with Meta planning 1-4GW nuclear capacity and GE projecting 57 SMRs by 2035. A potential Trump win could boost nuclear, LNG, and O&G outlook. Velan's non-nuclear markets, including power generation, defense, LNG, and water, show strong growth potential. The company's undervaluation persists despite positive industry trends, with competitors like Flowserve seeing significant stock appreciation. Velan's diverse end markets, including thermal power stations, oil refineries, naval submarines, and LNG projects, benefit from increased demand and potential policy shifts. The author has added 30% to their position, making it their #2 holding, citing the stock's recent weakness and the company's favorable position in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

Read the full article here. Read time: 5 min