YB new stock pitches

* I use Interactive Brokers link to trade international and OTC stocks (if you can’t trade them in your current brokerage)

Seri Industrial S.p.A. (SERI.MI) is an Italian cleantech holding company with a market cap of 120m and 120m in debt, offering 3x-10x upside potential. The company's key asset is a 500m non-refundable grant for an 8.5GWH LFP gigafactory (Teverola 2), set to be operational in 2026. Other significant projects include Teverola 1 (a 350MWh pilot battery plant), a potential JV with ENI, a legacy lead-acid battery business, a consumer waste recycling JV with Unilever (P2P), and the acquisition of Menarini bus factory. Multiple catalysts are expected in Q1 2025, including T2 equipment contracts, T1 sales ramp-up, ENI JV finalization, P2P recycling JV progress, and potential Geely investment in Menarini. The company faces risks such as slow project delivery and negative sentiment, but its ability to secure grants and partnerships with major companies like ENI, Leonardo, Fincantieri, and Unilever provides credibility. The Cvitillo family owns 56% of Seri, and their management approach appears shrewd, particularly in leveraging their location for grant funding

Read the full article here. Read time: 4 min

* I use Interactive Brokers link to trade international and OTC stocks (if you can’t trade them in your current brokerage)

SeSa S.p.A. (SES.MI), an Italian IT distributor, is trading at €61 with a €940M market cap and 8x forward P/E, compared to its historical average of 15x. The company has achieved a 9% organic CAGR and 17% EPS CAGR over the last decade, supported by a successful M&A strategy (75 deals at 5x EV/EBITDA average). SeSa is shifting towards higher-margin software and services, but faces near-term headwinds from IT hardware decline and Digital Green slowdown. The company is well-positioned to benefit from AI and cloud growth, with a 48% market share in Italy's IT distribution and 64% in cloud and enterprise. SeSa maintains a net cash balance sheet and is a potential acquisition target. The stock has a €120 price target (100% upside) in 12 months, based on a minimum valuation of 10x forward EBIT, in line with lower-growth peers. Risks include a corruption investigation of Digital Value, in which SeSa holds a 3.6% stake, though this investment is immaterial to SeSa's financials.

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Axcelis Technologies, a semiconductor capital equipment vendor of ion implanters, is expected to face significant headwinds as the industry cycle reverses. The company benefited from a 'Supercycle' in Silicon Carbide (SiC) and lagging-edge demand, but this is likely to end due to overcapacity and slowing EV growth. Axcelis' revenues are projected to decline 50-60% over the next two years, driven by reduced CapEx from key customers and market share loss to Applied Materials and Chinese competitors. Bookings are already down 45-55% year-over-year, with a 0.4x book-to-bill ratio. The stock is valued at $43 (16x FY26E EPS of $2.7), implying 45% downside, with a bear case suggesting 75% downside. Risks include unexpected EV demand growth spurring another SiC upcycle or a strategic buyout by larger industry players.

Read the full article here. Read time: 36 min