🤖📈 Top Trade Ideas for July 18

The author discusses U-Haul as a leading truck and trailer rental company in North America. They highlight U-Haul's extensive network of rental locations and its presence in the self-storage industry. The author emphasizes U-Haul's competitive advantages, such as price, availability, service, and convenience. They also mention U-Haul's consistent annual growth in the number of trucks and trailers and revenue growth in the moving segment. The author notes that U-Haul's dealers account for a significant portion of its moving revenues but are less efficient than company-owned locations. However, U-Haul has improved utilization at its dealers with the launch of U-Haul Truck Share 24/7. The author also discusses U-Haul's investment in self-storage units and its increased square footage and revenues in that segment. They highlight U-Haul's scale advantages in the rental equipment business and the advantage of its dealer network, particularly for one-way moves. The author mentions U-Haul's cost-efficient advertising through its fleet of trucks and trailers and its lower advertising spend compared to storage peers. They also note the synergies between U-Haul's moving and storage offerings. The author discusses U-Haul's capital investments in its fleet, real estate, and technology for the storage business and its focus on cost efficiency. They mention U-Haul's experience with conversions and ground-up builds for real estate capex spend. The author highlights U-Haul's returns on incremental capital and its hurdle rate for returns. They mention U-Haul's reinvestment needs in its moving business and its ability to locate underserved markets. The author also mentions U-Haul's U-Box storage service and its profitability. They discuss U-Haul's net debt profile, insurance operations, and its controlled company status. The author notes U-Haul's strong transaction growth despite a decline in the U.S. census mover rate. They mention U-Haul's plans to reinvest its free cash flow into the storage business and explore other avenues of reinvestment.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is expected to beat analyst consensus for Q2'23 earnings. The company has seen a dramatic increase in monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) since China dropped its zero covid policy, driven by pent-up demand and saved bankrolls among premium mass and mass play. Sequential gains for GGR in both Macau and Singapore are projected, which could push revenues over $10 billion for the year. LVS has a strong market share in the growing premium mass and mass segments, offsetting the decline in the VIP segment. The stock is currently undervalued and has potential for growth in the post-covid mass sector. LVS has long-term commitments to government expansions in Singapore and Macau, positioning it well to build non-gaming revenue. However, the majority holding of LVS shares by the Adelson Foundation has made it difficult to value the stock. The decision to sell off its Las Vegas portfolio was seen as a mistake by some investors. LVS is focusing on expanding in the Asian market and has a higher valuation due to its strength and positioning in Macau and Singapore. Macau's GGR is predicted to exceed expectations, and the author's forecast predicts strong growth in GGR for this year and beyond. The lack of positive sentiment towards LVS stock is attributed to investor concerns about the equity make-up of the stock. The author recommends a strong buy for LVS stock, believing in its promising prospects. LVS has a market cap of $46.57 billion, long-term debt of $15.99 billion, and cash on hand of $6.53 billion.

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The author has written a bullish article on Matador Resources, an oil and gas shale exploration and production (E&P) company focused on the Delaware Basin in the Permian. Matador has significant exposure to the Permian Basin and stands out among other E&Ps. The company recently acquired Advance Energy Partners, which is expected to drive production growth through 2024. The author analyzes Matador's Q1 2023 results and estimates its free cash flow for the year. They adjust their cash flow model based on management guidance and project potential upside for the stock. The author believes that Matador's equity value could be over 20% higher than the current price. However, they acknowledge downside risks, particularly in commodity pricing, and highlight near-term risks such as negative free cash flow in Q2 2023. Overall, the author is optimistic about Matador's growth potential and long-term prospects.

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