Top stock pitches (Tue, Jul 16)

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*This newsletter is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice or recommendations.

👋 Good Morning!

Thanks for reading the Yellowbrick Road where I share the best stock pitches from fund letters, analyst reports, blogs, and more!

The three stock pitches you’ll read about in today’s email are:

Day One Biopharmaceuticals ($DAWN)

Author: Microceph reports! | Price: $15.70 | Price Target: $44 (+180%) | Market Cap: $1.37B | Timeframe: N/A | Industry: Biotech

PAR Technology Corporation ($PAR)

Author: Bristlemoon Capital | Price: $50.88 | Price Target: $224 (+340%) | Market Cap: $1.73B | Timeframe: 5 years | Industry: Restaurant Software

Spotify ($SPOT)

Author: @TMTMoats | Price: $302.15 | Price Target: N/A | Market Cap: $59.92B | Timeframe: N/A | Industry: Music Streaming

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Connor (follow the Yellowbrick Twitter account - @joinyellowbrick)

* If you missed yesterday’s email, don’t forget to read it here

YBR PORTFOLIO

The YBR Portfolio copies the trades of the top 10 investors (based on the average returns of their previous stock pitches) in our database of 1,000+ investors. If you want to be alerted when the best investors buy/sell a stock, then this section is for you.

*All investments in the YBR Portfolio will be for ~3% of the portfolio value (which allows us to hold a maximum of 33 stocks at a time).

**I use Interactive Brokers (link) for the portfolio because it makes it easy to trade international and OTC stocks. If you decide to open an account with them, use this link so they know I sent you.

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STOCK PITCHES

Author Returns

The below stock pitch is from Microceph reports!.

We have 2 stock pitches from them in our database and their historic returns are:

Upgrade to Yellowbrick Road Premium to unlock the historic returns for this author.

BLOG POST - Microceph reports!

$DAWN - Day One Biopharma writeup

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes targeted therapies for patients with genomically defined cancers.

Ticker: DAWN | Price: $15.70 | Price Target: $44 (180%)
Market Cap: $1.37B | Timeframe: N/A

🧪 Biotech | 📈 Bullish Idea

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) is a commercial-stage company with a $1B market cap and an approved drug, Ojemda (tovorafenib), for relapsed/refractory BRAF-altered pediatric low-grade glioma (pLGG). The drug demonstrated a 51% overall response rate in trials. With an estimated 700 patients per year at $400k per patient, peak sales could reach $600M. The stock has 100-200% upside potential, driven by frontline data and sales momentum. Key catalysts include Ojemda's launch, pivotal frontline study results, and a combo study readout with pimasertib. The addressable market of 2-3k patients could lead to a $3B enterprise value at 65% penetration. Risks include a slow launch, competition from MEK inhibitors, potential safety signals, and market underappreciation of the opportunity. The company has a strong cash position of $360M and a clear catalyst pathway. However, the stock faces challenges such as low trading volume, limited specialist investor involvement, and the need for molecular diagnostic profiling.

Read the full article here. Read time: 15 min

Author Returns

The below stock pitch is from Bristlemoon Capital.

Their historic returns are:

Upgrade to Yellowbrick Road Premium to unlock the historic returns for this author.

TWITTER - Bristlemoon Capital

PAR Technology's Integrated Platform and Unified ID: A Game Changer for Restaurants

PAR Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides omnichannel cloud-based hardware and software solutions to the restaurant and retail industries worldwide.

Ticker: PAR | Price: $50.88 | Price Target: $224 (+340%)
Market Cap: $1.73B | Timeframe: 5 years

🍔 Restaurant Software | 📈 Bullish Idea

PAR Technology Corporation (PAR) offers mission-critical software to enterprise restaurant chains, with its ARR having grown 20x since 2018. The company's integrated platform, utilizing unified data crucial for AI implementation, is undervalued due to temporary margin depression and negative FCF. PAR's growth is driven by pricing/cross-sell initiatives and M&A, with recent acquisitions (Stuzo and TASK) expanding its TAM into convenience stores and international markets. The company charges only 0.2% of a restaurant's AUV, suggesting significant room for price increases. PAR's product modules use a unified ID, allowing for better customer tracking and data insights. Management projects a 20-30% ARR CAGR, with the bull case suggesting a potential 4x MOIC and 37% IRR over 5 years if PAR achieves a 30% ARR CAGR and software-level margins. Key risks include execution challenges and competition. Despite these risks, the stock appears undervalued, with even conservative assumptions indicating potential upside.

Read the full article here. Read time: 2 min

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Author Returns

The below stock pitch is from @TMTMoats.

We have 5 stock pitches from them in our database and their historic returns are:

Upgrade to Yellowbrick Road Premium to unlock the historic returns for this author.

ANALYST REPORT - @TMTMoats

Spotify: Margin Expansion and Shareholder Returns Ahead (Baron's Capital)

Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates through two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.

Ticker: SPOT | Price: $302.15 | Price Target: N/A
Market Cap: $59.92B | Timeframe: N/A

🎧 Music Streaming | 📈 Bullish Idea

Spotify (SPOT) is poised for improved profitability with a medium-term gross margin target of 30%, driven by its artist promotions marketplace, growing advertising business, and more profitable podcast offerings. The company has demonstrated pricing power through successful price increases with minimal churn, while innovating with features like audiobooks and AI DJ to differentiate from competitors. Recent layoffs and a focus on operating efficiency have prioritized profitability. Baron's Capital sees long-term potential for Spotify to reach over 1 billion monthly active users (up from ~600 million currently), with expectations of continued margin expansion and increased leverage in partner negotiations. The company is anticipated to begin returning capital to shareholders within a year, further bolstering its investment appeal.

Read the full article here. Read time: 1 min

Which stock idea was the most compelling to you?

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Yesterday’s Poll Results:

🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ Red Cat Holdings ($RCAT) [41%]

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Black Stone Minerals ($BSM) [34%]

🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ KKR & Co. Inc. ($KKR) [25%]

Your comments:

  • 🎮 micke*** ($RCAT): Military contracts for drones has huge upside

  • 🛢️ loril*** ($BSM): What a great dividend!

MARKET OVERVIEW / NEWS

Market Overview

Are you short-term bullish or bearish on the market?

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Yesterday’s Poll Results: 80% bullish

It turns out that surviving an assassination attempt will do wonders for your presidential chances and your company! $DJT and crypto companies led the way and the markets are as bullish as ever.

Stock Market News

Goldman Sachs profit jumps on robust debt underwriting, fixed-income trading - Reuters

Apple gains after Morgan Stanley calls stock 'top pick' for AI efforts - Reuters

Macy's ends buyout talks with Arkhouse and Brigade after months of negotiations - CNBC

Burberry shares drop 10% after the luxury giant issues profit warning and replaces CEO - CNBC

Amazon Prime Day sales to hit record $14 billion, data firm says - Reuters

Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates - CNBC 

Activist Starboard builds over 6.5% stake in Tinder owner Match, WSJ reports - Reuters 

FEATURED INSIDER TRADE

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Chief Executive Officer at WILLAMETTE VALLEY VINEYARDS INC ($WVVI)

The Chief Executive Officer purchased 2,978 shares at $3.92/share ($11,682.19 total) which increased their vested holdings by 0.8%. The current price is $3.89 (-0.8%). Their median purchase size is $10,001.50 and this is their 3rd largest purchase out of 7 all time. link

Historic Returns
1m returns: 9% weighted | 12% median | 100% win rate (5/5)
3m returns: 24% weighted | 41% median | 100% win rate (5/5)
6m returns: 30% weighted | 73% median | 80% win rate (4/5)
1y returns: 3% weighted | 22% median | 80% win rate (4/5)

LINKS YOU’LL LOVE

*DeFi Technologies Inc. is listed under the ticker code DEFTF on the OTC. The DeFi Alpha trading desk has contributed to this success. In the second quarter of 2024 alone, they generated an incredible C$113.8 million in revenue. This new revenue stream showcases DeFi’s ability to adapt and thrive in a rapidly evolving market.

Peter Thiel describes what makes a great founder

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THAT’S ALL FOLKS

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