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Today's top stock ideas (Mon, Dec 4)
Connor Van Ooyen
December 04, 2023
About // Sponsorships // Twitter
👋 Good Morning!
Welcome to the 155 new readers who joined this weekend!
Our AI read and summarized 143 stock ideas, 1231 news articles, and 92 insider trades and found:
A land holding company with 400%+ return potential (featured stock idea)
Amazon buys SpaceX rocket launches (news)
Ray Dalio’s top 10 book recommendations (links you’ll love)
A director at Exxon sells $200M+ of their stock (insider trade)
3 more bonus trades
and much more…
Thanks for reading! Have a great day.
Connor
* If you missed yesterday’s email, don’t forget to read it here
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FEATURED STOCK IDEA
VALUE INVESTORS CLUB
MAUI LAND & PINEAPPLE CO - MLP
Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc. is a land holding and operating company founded in 1909 and based in Kapalua, Hawaii, United States. It owns approximately 24,300 acres on the island of Maui.
Ticker: MLP | Price: $15.05 | Price Target: $79 (+425%) | Timeframe: N/A
🏔️ Land Holding | 🌺 Hawaii | 📈 Bullish Idea
Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP) holds about 22,000 acres in Maui with an estimated fair value of around $79 per share, a significant markup from the current $15/share trading price. This valuation is conservative as it assumes zero value for over 75% of their acreage. MLP is debt-free with sufficient cash, and the operating assets cover business expenses. The company's land was unaffected by Maui's recent fires, and new leadership is expected to soon clarify MLP's asset holdings, development plans, and timelines. Even without attributing value to conservation-zoned land, the 3,000 acres of former pineapple farm in West Maui are poised to be highly valuable, potentially worth over $500 million, or around $32/share. With Maui facing a housing shortage, regulatory tailwinds could favor MLP's development potential, especially as it owns crucial water infrastructure and already has entitlements for over 1,300 housing units in Kapalua. Steve Case's involvement and strategic board appointments suggest a shift towards realizing the value of MLP's assets, aiming to develop a premier luxury community in Maui.
Read the full article here. Read time: 9 min
POLL - FEATURED STOCK IDEA
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How do you rate the featured stock idea? |
Yesterday’s Rating (link):
Carlyle Credit Income Fund ($CCIF)
🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ - Buy (33%)
🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️ - Pass (34%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ - Watchlist (33%)
bucl**** (buy) - I've been enjoying their dividends and growth for awhile now. I purchased CCIF on July 11th. They paid a phenomenal $0.960 dividend on July 13th.
mikev**** (pass) - No volume and repositioning to CDOs. No thanks.”
* There are more stock ideas later in the email!
MARKET OVERVIEW
Are you short-term bullish or bearish on the market? |
Friday’s Poll Results (link): 65%
Probably the most bullish days since we started tracking sentiment. The Fear v Greed index was up another point to 67 (which is the highest it’s been since we started tracking), the indexes were all up (and the small-cap index was up a huge amount - almost 3%), the news sentiment was the most bullish we’ve seen at 0.457 (above the 7-day average of 0.325), and the Yellowbrick Road readers were 65% bullish (the highest it’s seen).
STOCK MARKET NEWS
Today’s news is brought to you by The Generalist newsletter. Get a free deep dive into a top tech company each week. Subscribe for free here
Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates 'premature' and says more hikes could happen - CNBC
October construction spending beats expectations with best reading since August - CNBC Television
Dow Notches Longest Winning Streak Since 2021 - WSJ
Amazon buys SpaceX rocket launches for Kuiper satellite internet project - CNBC
PDD surpasses Alibaba as most valuable Chinese e-commerce company - Proactive Investors
Cybertruck's price tag draws mixed reviews - Fox Business
* If you want all of the day’s most important stock market news, sign up for my free, daily email called Market Mornings.
QUIZ
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Which billionaire founded Oaktree Capital Management and is known for his memos to investors? |
Yesterday’s Question (link): The 'Big Mac Index' is a novel way to measure purchasing power parity between two currencies. Which magazine introduced this concept?
Answer: The Economist (in 1986!)
INSIDER TRADES
The insider trades are brought to you by CEO Watcher (another free, weekly email I write). It’s the only newsletter that tracks insider returns to find the best ones.
Director at agilon health, inc. ($AGL) purchased 22,300 shares at $11.22/share ($250,206.00 total) which increased their holdings by 231.5% (link)
Director at Sonendo, Inc. ($SONX) purchased 200,000 shares at $0.15/share ($30,000.00 total) which increased their holdings by 72.9% (link)
Director at Exxon Mobil ($XOM) sold 2,077,000 shares at $104.06/share ($216M total) which decreased their holdings by 100.0% (link)
10% Owner at Airbnb, Inc. ($ABNB) sold 202,596 shares at $127.32/share ($26M total) which decreased their holdings by 1.3% (link)
CEO and Chairman at Snowflake Inc. ($SNOW) sold 112,500 shares at $175.90/share ($19.8M total) which decreased their holdings by 38.1% (link)
LINKS YOU’LL LOVE
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SECRET QUESTION
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BONUS STOCK IDEAS
HEDGE FUND
Plural Investing holding: Currency Exchange International (CXI.TO / CURN)
Currency Exchange International, Corp. provides foreign exchange technology and processing services in North America.
Ticker: OTC: CURN | Price: $16.13 | Price Target: $55 (+241%) | Timeframe: 3 years
🏦 Financial Technology | 📈 Bullish Idea
Currency Exchange International (CXI.TO / CURN) presents a promising investment opportunity, primarily due to its status as a major supplier of foreign banknotes in the U.S. and U.S. dollar banknotes internationally. With its key competitor Travelex exiting the market, CXI, led by Founder Randolph Pinna, has made significant market share gains. Currently trading at 8x P/E, the company’s earnings are expected to nearly double in the next three years, potentially reducing its P/E to 4x. CXI's first opportunity lies in international expansion, particularly in supplying dollar banknotes globally, a market estimated at around $380 million in revenues. Despite initial setbacks due to U.S. banking crises, CXI is resolving these issues by involving major banks as intermediaries. The second opportunity is in capital deployment, where CXI’s significant cash reserves ($98 million in cash against $6 million in debt) could be used for strategic acquisitions, potentially in the banknote industry where there are opportunities for significant synergies. CXI is exploring financing options to increase its deployable cash for acquisitions, which could substantially increase earnings and validate the company’s strategy. With a strong balance sheet, modest valuation, and growth potential, CXI represents a low-risk investment with considerable upside potential over a 3-5 year horizon.
Read the full article here. Read time: 7 min
HEDGE FUND
Polen Capital Small Cap Growth new purchase: XPEL
XPEL, Inc. sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products. The company offers automotive surface and paint protection, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software.
Ticker: XPEL | Price: $46.91 | Price Target: N/A | Timeframe: N/A
🚗 Auto Products | 📈 Bullish Idea
XPEL is a leader in the automotive paint protection film (“PPF”) market. PPF is popular for high-end vehicles and gaining broader traction due to the solid value proposition and XPEL, which drive market growth. XPEL is a notable name brand that has become synonymous with paint protection. It has the most extensive distribution network and exceptional software to aid installation centers. We believe it’s still early for paint protection as the product gains traction with dealers, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), and a broader set of consumers. While the product may seem simple, the infrastructure cannot be easily replicated. Regarding valuecreating reinvestment, XPEL is planting the seeds for many years of growth with early investments in Europe and opening up PPF to new markets such as architectural and Marine. The financial model is also robust, with 20% operating margins, compelling free cash flow conversion, a solid balance sheet, and high returns on capital.
Read the full article here. Read time: 7 min
HEDGE FUND
Conestoga Capital Advisors new purchase: CSW Industries, Inc. (CSWI)
CSW Industrials, Inc. operates as a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Contractor Solutions, Engineered Edificio Solutions, and Specialized Reliability Solutions.
Ticker: CSWI | Price: $181.41 | Price Target: N/A | Timeframe: N/A
🏗️ Industrials | 🏡 HVAC | 📈 Bullish Idea
Based in Dallas, TX, CSWI is focused on niche, value added products. Over the last seven years CSWI, through mergers, acquisitions and some divestitures, has transformed itself from a diversified industrial company into a business heavily tied to residential HVAC maintenance and repair (55% of sales vs. 24% in fiscal 2016). We see this as an underfollowed, earnings compounder with high market share in a stable growth repair -and-replace end market, high single-digit organic revenue growth, 20+% EBITDA margin and 30% return on investment.
Read the full article here. Read time: 15 min
+3 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
Which bonus stock idea was the most compelling to you? |
Yesterday’s Poll Results (link):
🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ Adyen (OTC: $ADYEY) [37%]
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Aurinia Pharmaceuticals ($AFYA) [33%]
🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ [SHORT] AerSale Corp ($ASLE) [30%]
WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
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🏆 Last Week’s Winners
🥇 Prize - $25 Amazon gift card to dr.stoc***
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MY OTHER FREE NEWSLETTERS
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