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Today's top stock ideas (Fri, Dec 8)
Connor Van Ooyen
December 08, 2023
About // Sponsorships // Twitter
👋 Good Morning!
Welcome to the 106 new readers who joined yesterday!
Our AI read and summarized 143 stock ideas, 2131 news articles, and 125 insider trades and found:
A solar power company with 100% upside (featured stock idea)
McDonalds is testing new CosMc restaurant concepts (news)
Director at $FTHM triples their position (insider trade)
3 more bonus trades
and much more…
Thanks for reading! Have a great day.
Connor
* If you missed yesterday’s email, don’t forget to read it here
ANNOUNCEMENT
Two days of announcements in a row?! Insanity.
I just finished MASSIVELY upgrading my code for finding the best insider trades each day and am turning it into a premium, daily email on my CEO Watcher newsletter.
For the next couple of weeks, I’m sending that premium, daily email to ALL subscribers of the CEO Watcher newsletter for free. Subscribe to CEO Watcher now to get these emails.
How it works:
Each night, I scrape all of the insider trades that were filed with the SEC that day
For each insider that made a trade, I get all of their previous trades and calculate the 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, and 1 year returns for each trade.
I then calculate the overall returns for each insider so we know which insiders tend to buy the stock before it pops or sell it before it drops.
Each morning, I pick the top insider trades and send them in an email
I’ve been testing the daily newsletter with a few of my CEO Watcher readers for the last week and a half and already found:
On Nov 30, the Executive Chairman at $STRR bought the stock for the 3rd time. The two previous purchases had average 1 month returns of 35%. Just 4 days later, the stock was up 20%.
On Nov 30, a Director at $SYM sold $3.6M of the stock. Of the last 13 sells they made, the stock went down over the next month for 12 of them with an average loss of 20%. The stock is already down 12%.
On Dec 6, a Director at $BKKT sold $385k of the stock. Of their 18 sells, 16 of them have negative 1 month returns with an average loss of almost 30%. In just two days, the stock is already down 7%.
If you are an active trader and/or like short-term plays, this is the newsletter for you!
FEATURED STOCK IDEA
ANALYST REPORT
Altus Power: A solar company with 100% upside
Altus Power, Inc., a clean electrification company, develops, owns, constructs, and operates roof, ground, and carport-based photovoltaic solar energy generation and storage systems.
Ticker: AMPS | Price: $5.42 | Price Target: $10 (+84%) | Timeframe: N/A
☀️ Solar Energy | 📈 Bullish Idea
Altus Power (AMPS), a player in the commercial & industrial (C&I) solar space, holds a differentiated market position in the U.S. solar market through its relationships with CBRE, Blackstone & Channel partners, and a community-focused approach. The company, recognized for its robust traditional utility-scale solar PV services, also offers a digital customer interface, Altus IQ. With CBRE's support, Altus has secured long-term agreements for new solar arrays, leveraging a network of experts. The firm's financial strategy is bolstered by flexible solutions, like a non-commitment fee construction facility, facilitating competitive bidding for asset acquisitions. Altus boasts a sustainable business model with strong EBITDA growth and cash flows, allowing for reinvestment in its growth initiatives and asset base. With an attractive valuation pegged at 14x its projected 2024 EBITDA and a 20-year DCF analysis, Altus aims to maintain high EBITDA margins and leverage its unique financing strategies for expansion. The author believes Altus has the best R/R entering 2024
Read the full article here. Read time: 3 min
POLL - FEATURED STOCK IDEA
+3 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
How do you rate the featured stock idea? |
Yesterday’s Rating (link):
Natural Resource Partners ($NRP)
🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ - Buy (46%)
🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️ - Pass (27%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ - Watchlist (27%)
I think this might be the new record for the percent of voters that voted “Buy”.
tlhal*** (watchlist) - I'd like to see a pull back to about $79 and get in on a bounce at support. The dividend is almost 4% a year, which would help the cost basis as this stock grows. Long term potential is great!
palsru*** (buy) - With current management's sights on reducing debt and creating FCF, this looks like a tremendous value. The only headwind may be the current administrations hatred for coal, but this company is divested in other areas in case coal prices slump.
emoj*** (watchlist) - I would need to see if it continues to reduce its debt as well as how much demand for coal and regulatory changes evolve over next year
* There are more stock ideas later in the email!
MARKET OVERVIEW
Are you short-term bullish or bearish on the market? |
Yesterday’s Poll Results (link): 56%
After a couple of bearish days, the market switched right back to bullish. The indexes were all up significantly (except the Dow which was only slightly up), the news sentiment was significantly more bullish than the previous 7 days, YBR readers were 6 points more bullish, and the Fear v Greed index went up a point.
The bullish readers are pointing to cheap oil prices and holiday sales as the reason for bullishness while bearish readers are concerned the market is overhyped and due for a turn downward.
STOCK MARKET NEWS
Today’s news is brought to you by Danelfin. Their AI-powered stock picking platform supercharges your investments. Check it out
U.S. stocks open higher as investors digest jobless-claims report - Market Watch
Lululemon shares fall as retailer gives tepid holiday outlook - CNBC
PayPal shares slide after Amazon drops Venmo as payment option - CNBC
McDonald's to open first CosMc's spinoff restaurant this week - CNBC
Investing in Space: Why Amazon bought rocket launches from rival SpaceX - CNBC
Amazon tests grocery subscription service for Prime members - CNBC
* If you want all of the day’s most important stock market news, sign up for my free, daily email called Market Mornings.
QUIZ
+3 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
What company did Steve Jobs found in 1985 after leaving Apple, which was later acquired by Apple in 1996? |
Yesterday’s Question (link): Which company did Steve Jobs work at before founding Apple?
Answer: Atari! He was employee #40 and famously had terrible hygiene and dietary habits.
INSIDER TRADES
The insider trades are brought to you by CEO Watcher (another free, weekly email I write). It’s the only newsletter that tracks insider returns to find the best ones. Subscribe here
10% Owner at EyePoint Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ($EYPT) purchased 191,906 shares at $218.20/share ($41.87M total) which increased their holdings by 3.6% (link)
Director at Fathom Holdings Inc. ($FTHM) purchased 300,000 shares at $2.00/share ($600K total) which increased their holdings by 205.3% (link)
10% Owner at Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. ($CWAN) sold 3,689,810 shares at $19.75/share ($72.87M total) which decreased their holdings by 100.0% (link)
See Remarks at DraftKings Inc. ($DKNG) sold 494,234 shares at $36.01/share ($17.80M total) which decreased their holdings by 52.8% (link)
Chief Executive Officer at Datadog, Inc. ($DDOG) sold 104,346 shares at $117.26/share ($12.24M total) which decreased their holdings by 25.9% (link)
LINKS YOU’LL LOVE
+15 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
Pretty good call by this guy. META is +262%, GOOGL is +63%, and AMZN is +61% since this tweet
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SECRET QUESTION
+10 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
If you read this far, reply to this email with your answer to gain points for the weekly tournament. (Or if you’d rather not answer but still want the points, you can just reply and say hi!)
Secret Question: Any big weekend plans? My wife and I have our first totally free weekend (and last before the holiday craziness starts).
BONUS STOCK IDEAS
ANALYST REPORT
Under Armour: Maintaining BUY
Under Armour manufactures and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women and children. Its products have become popular with competitive athletes and consumers with active lifestyles, and are sold in more than 25,000 retail outlets worldwide. The company has 7,000 employees.
Ticker: UAA | Price: $8.45 | Price Target: $15.50 (+83%) | Timeframe: N/A
🩳 Performance Apparel | 🛍️ Retail | 📈 Bullish Idea
Under Armour (NYSE: UAA), known for its performance apparel, footwear, and accessories, is maintaining a BUY rating with a $15 target price, as per analysis by Kristina Ruggeri. Despite initial pandemic struggles, the company is rebounding through enhancing inventory management, elevating its brand, launching a rewards program, and reducing costs. New CEO Stephanie Linnartz's strategy includes a focus on younger athletes, expansion of women's offerings, and international growth. Notably, Under Armour aims to triple its addressable market with its new 'Live' casual clothing line. Fiscal 2Q24 earnings exceeded expectations with $0.24 EPS and sales at $1.6 billion, showing a robust direct-to-consumer segment growth and international expansion, though North American sales faced headwinds. The company is also shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer channels and premium products to improve margins. With shares currently undervalued following a year-long pullback, Argus sees this as an opportune investment entry point. Its financial strength is deemed Medium-Low, and the company's strategic share repurchase program reflects confidence in its operational and financial growth trajectory, further supporting the positive outlook.
Read the full article here. Read time: 7 min
HEDGE FUND
AWI - Why do Ceiling Tiles Have Ferrari-like Margins?
Armstrong World Industries (NYSE: AWI) is the leading manufacturer of acoustical ceilings and walls in North America. The company has a rich history dating back over 160 years, a dominant market share in North America, and a strong focus on highly specified ceiling and wall products.
Ticker: AWI | Price: $91.54 | Price Target: N/A | Timeframe: N/A
🏭 Ceiling/Wall Manufacturer | 📈 Bullish Idea
Armstrong World Industries (AWI), a dominant North American acoustical ceiling and wall manufacturer (think 'Kleenex' of ceilings), boasts a 60% market share and a strong 'Spec, Track, and Close' strategy. AWI consistently raises prices above inflation, resulting in high margins and impressive market share retention. Their product innovations and focus on acoustics, design, and sustainability drive growth and premium pricing. AWI successfully navigates inflationary pressures, maintaining mid-40s EBITDA margins and capturing increased margins through methodical price adjustments. Long-term growth is fueled by industry volume growth, product-driven gains, above-inflation price rises, and premium product mix shifts. This positions AWI for sustainable revenue growth, margin expansion, and double-digit long-term EPS and free cash flow growth per share, despite short-term volatility. AWI's leadership, strategic pricing, and premium product focus uniquely position it for continued success with significant upside potential.
Read the full article here. Read time: 7 min
BLOG POST
Gaming Innovation Group (GIGSEK.STO Sweden – SEK 3.7bn)
Gaming Innovation Group Inc. is an iGaming company offering cloud-based product and platform services and performance marketing to its B2B partners
Ticker: GIGSEK.STO | Price: SEK 28.95 | Price Target: N/A | Timeframe: N/A
🕹️ Gaming Technology | 📈 Bullish Idea
Gaming Innovation Group (GIGSEK Sweden – SEK 3.7bn). Gaming Innovation is a rapidly growing company with (relatively) high-quality operations trading at an attractive valuation. The company has strong tailwinds from a rapidly growing market, should be able to continue to expand margins and has a solid management team in place. Earnings visibility is relatively high, which is not reflected in the valuation. The company operates two segments, Media and Platform/Sports. Media already has very strong ebitda margins and a high FCF conversion rate. Platform/Sports is a B2B platform servicing online casino and sports betting operators (perhaps the reason for the discount), and is now ramping up profitability. GIG is trading at ~6x 2023e ev/ebitda, for >20% ebitda cagr over the medium-term.
Read the full article here. Read time: 1 min
+3 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
Which bonus stock idea was the most compelling to you? |
Yesterday’s Poll Results (link):
🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ OKEA ($OKEA.OL) [42%]
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Auto Partner ($APR.WA) [32%]
🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ [SHORT] Safety Shot ($SHOT) [26%]
Your Thoughts:
🔥 alpo*** ($OKEA.OL): Like production, European weather, dividend. But is pipeline to Europe safe? Recent evidence of efforts to compromise it.
🔥 emoj*** ($OKEA.OL): With OPEC+ reducing output and Europe increasing demand/consumption, $OKEA is poised to have a profitable year.
WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
Gain points and earn prizes every week just for voting on the quizzes/polls, replying to this email, and clicking on ads/sponsored links!
🏆 This Week’s Leaderboard
stua**** (204 points)
japa*** (204 points)
joe_**** (204 points)
Scoring
+3 points for voting in each poll
+10 points for replying to this email
+15 points for clicking on an ad/sponsored link
+50 points for referring a friend
* Learn more about the Weekly Tournament here
MY OTHER FREE NEWSLETTERS
Market Mornings (link): The fastest way to get the top stock market news each morning. We only send the headlines, so there is no fluff, politics, etc.
CEO Watcher (link): I built a tool that tracks all insider trades AND calculates their historical returns so that we know which insider trades are worth copying. The top insider trades are sent every Friday.
Intentional Dollar (link): Simple thoughts, tools, and questions to help move your money forward → published weekly, for free, from a professional Financial Advisor and CFP® (written by my friend)
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THAT’S ALL FOLKS
+3 POINTS - WEEKLY TOURNAMENT
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Connor (@connorvo on Twitter)
How would you rate today's newsletter?If you vote 1 or 3 stars, please leave a comment with what you didn't like so I can improve it! |
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