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π€π This Stock is a "Gift" After Earnings Dip
Plus the "Year of Efficiency" at Meta, a strong regional bank set to rebound, and much more...
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Our AI read and summarized 166 investing articles. It found some great stuff including:
π The βYear of Efficiencyβ at Meta
π¦ A strong regional bank set to rebound
π± A βgiftβ after a fintech dropped after earnings
π° Much moreβ¦
π Todayβs Top 10 Stock Ideas
Meta Platforms ($META): Improving Business And Still A Buy
π€ AI | π’ Ads | π©βπ Metaverse | π Long Idea
The author believes Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is undervalued and presents a rare buying opportunity. Despite facing challenges, the company has beaten revenue and earnings per share expectations in Q1 2023. Mark Zuckerberg has declared 2023 the "Year of Efficiency" and aims to increase the bottom line by cutting costs and enhancing the company's efficiency. As part of this effort, research and development expenses, which increased 22% due to restructuring charges, are expected to decrease in the coming quarters. Additionally, headcount has been reduced from around 86,500 to about 77,100.
AI recommendations have led to increased time spent on Instagram, and Reels monetization efficiency has improved significantly on both Instagram and Facebook. Reels continue to grow rapidly, and Meta Platforms expects it to become neutral to overall revenue by the end of this year or early next year. Business messaging, another potential growth pillar, has seen click-to-message ads reaching a $10 billion revenue run rate, and the number of businesses using paid messaging on WhatsApp growing by 40% quarter-over-quarter.
They have also been repurchasing shares, spending almost $10 billion in Q1 2023 and $31.5 billion in the last twelve months.
Adobe Inc. ($ADBE): Adobe Announces Slew of Innovations and Goes All-in on Generative AI at Summit; FVE Remains $425
π» SaaS | π¨ Design | π€ AI | π Long Idea
Adobe dominates the content creation software market with its Creative Cloud suite, including Photoshop and Illustrator. The company focuses on acquiring new users and converting them to paid users. Adobe's acquisition of Omniture in 2009 helped it expand into digital experience, including marketing and advertising solutions. Its Document Cloud, driven by Acrobat and PDF, is now a $2 billion business. Adobe has a wide economic moat, with digital media having a wide moat and digital experience and publishing having narrow moats. The fair value estimate for Adobe is $425 per share, with a five-year revenue CAGR of approximately 11%. The company faces risks like losing market share in Creative Cloud and integration missteps with acquisitions like Magento and Marketo. Adobe's Exemplary capital allocation rating and CEO Shantanu Narayen's leadership have helped the company successfully expand into the marketing technology solutions market with its Experience Cloud offering.
Charter ($CHTR): Solid Progress in Q1 After Shares Collapsed in 2022
π Telco | β¬οΈ Growth | π Long Idea
Charter's Q1 2023 results show growth has reaccelerated, with residential internet revenues growing 4.9% YoY and adjusted EBITDA expected to accelerate in H2. The company is expected to generate around $76 of FCF/Share in 2026, and with shares at $357.23, the forecast indicates a total return of 85% (25.8% annualized) by 2025 year-end. The article discusses the effectiveness of fiber overbuild for telcos in defending and opening new markets, but not in taking share from cable companies. Charter's plans to expand its network, including with the Rural Constructive Initiative, are on track. The article provides Charter Return Forecasts and concludes with a Buy rating on Charter stock.
GameStop ($GME): 2-Year Life Expectancy, Without A Huge Business Turnaround
ποΈ Retail | β¬οΈ Declining Business | π Short Idea
The stock market experienced a significant increase in asset prices in 2021 due to QE and government stimulus money, with many people investing in "meme" stocks like GameStop (GME). However, GME's core business model faces challenges as game sales switch to digital, and Microsoft's purchase of Activision Blizzard is expected to accelerate this trend. GME's financial and operational conditions are now under scrutiny as excess market liquidity evaporates. Despite a Q4 earnings report that exceeded expectations, GME struggles with declining sales and gross margins, and elevated operating costs. The company's efforts to expand into the NFT and digital currency space were unsuccessful, and its working capital is falling. The author believes GME will eventually go out of business due to competitive pressure against direct digital sales and predicts a forward cash-flow loss of around $400M-$600M. GME's life expectancy could be shorter if Microsoft acquires Activision, and the stock is considered overvalued in the short run. The author suggests put options as the best bet for GME, as they mitigate short-selling risk and the risk of a short squeeze.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. ($PNC): Bank Regulatory Reform; No Postmortem Surprises in Silicon Valley, Supports Our Regulatory Thesis
π¦ Bank | β¬οΈ Expansion | π Long Idea
The Federal Reserve's review of Silicon Valley Bank's supervision and regulation indicates potential changes in regulations for banks. These changes are expected to be manageable, phased in over several years, and should not require capital raises for banks under coverage.
PNC is a strong regional banking franchise with a national presence, successful asset management and middle market investment banking operations, and a focus on technology. The acquisition of BBVA is anticipated to drive above-market fee growth. PNC has organic expansion opportunities and superior underwriting abilities. The author has a positive long-run outlook for the U.S. banking system and PNC's profitability, expecting a normalized return on tangible equity of around 15%.
The author's base scenario projects a 58% efficiency ratio for PNC and annual expense growth of 2.5%-3%. Bull and bear cases estimate fair value at $214 and $134 per share, respectively. PNC's leadership has focused on improving internal operations and has a successful acquisition history, contributing to the company's success.
Spotify ($SPOT): Missed A Beat At Earnings But Deeply Undervalued
π± Tech | π§ Music/Podcasts | π·οΈ Undervalued | π Long Idea
Spotify's Q1 2023 results missed forecasts, but revenue increased 12.09% YoY, with monthly active users growing 22% to 515 million and premium subscribers growing 15% YoY to 210 million. Ad-supported revenue has growth potential in podcast advertising. Spotify's low cost and value for customers indicate pricing power and potential for price increases. The company's main strategy is expanding into the growing audiobook market.
Operating expenses rose 36%, primarily due to headcount expansion, which could lead to product improvements and greater efficiency. The main risk is competition from Amazon Music and Apple Music, but Spotify's value-to-price offering and expansion should help maintain its position. The author values Spotify at $207 per share, which is a 65.2% increase compared to its current trading price of ~$135 per share.
SoFi Technologies ($SOFI): A Gift Below $5 After Q1 Earnings
π±Fintech | π€ Brokerage | β¬οΈ Buy the Dip | π Long Idea
The author believes the recent 12% drop in SoFi Technologies' stock is undeserved and presents a buying opportunity. Despite beating Q1'23 estimates and raising FY 2023 guidance, SoFi experienced a stock drop. The company demonstrated strong acquisition momentum, with 46% YoY growth in membership, and significant revenue growth driven by financial services product expansion. SoFi's EBITDA performance improved greatly, and positive GAAP earnings are likely within 1-2 years. The company's raised guidance indicates management's confidence in its trajectory and expansion plan. Analysts project a 29% top line growth in FY 2023 and 23% growth in FY 2024, implying a forward price-to-sales ratio below the 1-year average. Although growth-focused FinTech companies face risks, the author believes the market overreaction to SoFi's Q1 results makes it a good buy opportunity with considerable re-valuation potential.
Zscaler: A Long-Term Winner In Cybersecurity
π Cybersecurity | π» Enterprise SaaS | β¬οΈ Growth | π Long Idea
Zscaler provides cloud-based cybersecurity solutions for enterprise-level companies and aims to improve their security posture beyond traditional firewalls. The company is growing faster than the overall cybersecurity market and primarily focuses on replacing legacy solutions. Zscaler has high customer satisfaction ratings and has recently secured a significant contract with a retail company. The company's projected revenue growth is 43% for the year, and it has a strong balance sheet with no liquidity concerns.
Zscaler is cheaper than average on a growth-adjusted basis compared to other cloud companies and has operating metrics in line with peers. The company prioritizes growth and market share over profitability, as evidenced by heavy spending on stock-based compensation. The author recommends Zscaler as a buy for growth portfolios on a long-term time horizon but suggests more clarity on management's long-term operating margin targets and a decrease in stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenues as growth slows.
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. ($CZR): Caesars' Balance Sheet Is Improving and Demand in Vegas Is Remaining Resilient
π° Casino | π± Digital Expansion | β¬οΈ Growth | π Long Idea
The author is bullish on Caesars, citing resilient demand in Vegas, a growing digital business, and an improved balance sheet. First-quarter occupancy in Vegas matched last quarter at 95%, with revenue growing 24% from last year. The digital business is also improving, and the company plans to invest $1.1 billion in digital assets through 2023. Caesars' leadership has a strong track record in balance sheet management and has paid off $400 million in debt this year.
The acquisition of the legacy Caesars business by Eldorado doubled the company's U.S. portfolio and increased its loyalty membership. Caesars is well-positioned to benefit from the US sports betting revenue opportunity. The fair value estimate for Caesars is $81 per share, and the 2020 merger with Caesars has generated over $1 billion in revenue and cost synergies. Eldorado's ROIC averaged 8.2% in 2018-19, higher than MGM's 7.5% and legacy Caesars' 5.6%.
Spirit AeroSystems ($SAVE): The Mini Boeing Crisis Offers A Contrarian Buy Opportunity
π©οΈ Airline | π Recovery | π Long Idea
Spirit AeroSystems reported Q1 revenues, highlighting the impact of issues with the Boeing 737. Aftermarket sales grew 21.5% and Defense & Space business grew 19%. However, commercial profits were negative $45.5 million due to costs related to the Boeing 737 program and Airbus A220. Spirit AeroSystems expects two rate increases this year and a liquidity cushion of $280 million from customers.
The author believes the company would be attractive if not for the Boeing 737 problems. They have lowered their expectations for 2023 due to the costs of revising airplanes but believe these costs will be incurred gradually. The stock may face challenges in 2023, but the author expects recovery by 2024 with a potential $60 stock value. Despite short-term risks, the author gives a strong buy rating for investors interested in long-term prospects.
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