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- π€π This Retailer Stock has 200% Upside
π€π This Retailer Stock has 200% Upside
Plus Gitlab is pushing hard into AI/ML, there is 69% upside for Par Pacific after their $90M investment, and much more
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Our AI read and summarized 172 articles today from all over the internet (including professional investor letters, professional research reports, blog posts, Seeking Alpha articles, etc). Here are the 10 best, including:
π€ Gitlab is pushing into AI and ML (for long-term tech/AI investors)
π’οΈ 69% upside for Par Pacific after $90M investment in Hawaii Renewable Fuels production (for oil/natural gas investors)
ποΈ A retail store that is currently $3, but should get up to $8-$10 (for retail and value investors)
π° Much moreβ¦
π± Top Tech Trade Ideas
The best stock pitches about tech stocks
GitLab, AI Eating Software, and Syndrome from The Incredibles
AI π€ | π» DevOps |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
GitLab is investing in AI and ML to automate aspects of DevOps workflows and expand beyond DevOps to serve the needs of engineers and data scientists. The company is investing aggressively in this opportunity, given its positioning as the core repo and CI/CD platform for its existing customer base. GitLab's investments in AI can be categorized into three buckets: Applied AI, MLOps, and DataOps. The company plans to introduce a model registry later this year to store, version, deploy, and track the health of AI and ML models within GitLab. The economic payoff of AI features is uncertain, and companies may need to find specific ways to realize ROI. The article also discusses the trade-off between uncertainty and competition for entrepreneurs and the trend of "AI-eating software" in the DevOps market.
Airbnb ($ABNB): Weak Guide Provides Compelling Opportunity
π©οΈ Travel | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Airbnb's weaker than expected Q2 2022 guidance presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Despite this, the company's 1Q23 earnings were strong, with revenues growing 20% YoY to $1.8 billion and a net income of $117 million. Airbnb, being a seasonal business, experiences less travel demand in Q1 and Q4 compared to Q2 and Q3. The company has a healthy cash reserve and is cash generative, with minimal capital expenditures. The travel industry's strong growth and demand, coupled with Airbnb's growth drivers, are expected to fuel its growth in the coming years. Despite the sell-off due to the guidance for Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, Airbnb is seen as reasonably valued with a 10-year DCF valuation of $121.56, offering a margin of safety compared to its current share price. The company is well-positioned in the travel industry to benefit from the continued recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and plans to continue investing in its product and marketing to increase their reach in underpenetrated markets.
π’οΈ Top Oil / Gas / Energy Trade Ideas
The best stock pitches about oil, gas, and energy companies.
Par Pacific ($PARR): Investment In Hawaii Renewable Fuels Should Accelerate Growth
π’οΈ Oil and Natural Gas | β¬οΈ Growth | πΌ Investment | π³ Renewable |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Par Pacific is an oil and natural gas company with strong Q1 results, reporting a revenue of $1.68 billion, up 24.80% YoY, driven by growth in its refining, retail, and logistics segments. It has recently announced a $90 million investment in Hawaii Renewable Fuels production, which is expected to strengthen its production capabilities and deepen its reach into the Hawaii air travel market. The investment is set to construct Hawaii's largest manufacturing facility for liquid renewable fuels, with an anticipated production of roughly 61 million gallons of renewable diesel, SAF, renewable naphtha, and liquified petroleum gases annually. Given the aviation industry's goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, this investment is seen as a primary catalyst for the company's growth and profit margins. However, the company is exposed to seasonality risk and declining product prices that could offset rising demand. Despite these, the author assigns a buy rating to Par Pacific, projecting a target price of $35, a 68.43% upside compared to the current share price of $20.78.
ποΈ Infrastructure / Industrials
The best stock pitches for infrastructure companies.
Preformed Line Products Company ($PLPC): A Solid Prospect Even After Such A Great Run
ποΈ Industrials | π·οΈ Undervalued | π¦ E-commerce | ποΈ Consumer Retail | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Preformed Line Products Company (PLPC), a provider of industrial products such as power conductor and fiber communication cables, has seen robust demand for its offerings leading to significant improvements in revenue and profits. Its shares have climbed 84% since November 2020, and it achieved growth across all four of its segments in the 2022 fiscal year. In the first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year, revenue reached $181.8 million, a substantial increase from $138.2 million a year earlier. The company's backlog has also grown, totaling $379.4 million at the end of the 2022 fiscal year. Net profits for Q1 2023 were nearly double those of Q1 2022. The author predicts net income of $94.6 million, adjusted operating cash flow of $177.9 million, and EBITDA of $211.9 million for the 2023 fiscal year based on Q1 results. The company is considered to be in a good spot fundamentally, with a strong history of growth, and its stock appears fundamentally attractive. The author rates the company as a 'buy' and notes that it is cheaper than similar enterprises in terms of price to earnings, price to operating cash flow, and EV to EBITDA metrics.
Chart Industries: Execution Time
π’οΈ Oil and Gas | ποΈ Manufacturing | π€ Acquisition | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Chart Industries has completed the acquisition of Howden, resulting in a significant amount of leverage that concerns the market. The combined company boasts long-lead times with sizable backlogs, providing surety for an industrial company. Both companies are on track for a record year, provided the first few months of deleveraging proceed as scheduled. Chart Industries has diversified away from the cyclical natural gas business and has ongoing business even when the oil and gas sector is in a slump. The acquisition will enable the combined company to offer a comprehensive product suite to customers, potentially accelerating sales growth. However, the high debt ratio indicated in the projected guidance may negatively affect the stock price, and the financials need to be tidied up. The management's ability to meet the deleveraging goal is crucial for the stock to outperform the market. Future acquisitions are on hold until a decent leverage is restored, potentially causing the product line to age and the company to lose its competitive edge. Despite significant risks, this is a strong speculative buy.
π Top Auto Ideas
The best stock pitches for automotive and EV companies.
Deep dive on Tesla, the hardcore engineering firm
π EV | β¬οΈ Revenue Growth | π Charging Network | π Batteries | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article discusses Tesla's success in revolutionizing the automotive industry with electric vehicles and a unique business model. Tesla's online sales model and in-house manufacturing have resulted in operating margins twice the industry average. The company's culture of hardcore engineering has led to significant reductions in weight and cost, making their vehicles more cost-effective than traditional manufacturers. Tesla's data advantage and hardware for full self-driving give them an advantage in the autonomous driving market, although their lack of lidar technology may be a disadvantage. Tesla is investing in Dojo, a supercomputer for AI training, and Optimus, a humanoid robot for manual labor. The company's charging network and energy storage products are also discussed. The article predicts that Tesla's revenues will double in the next three years, but competition and the success of full self-driving could impact future performance.
π¦ Top Financial Ideas
Any companies involved in banking, asset management, investing, etc.
First Merchants Corporation ($FMRE): A Stable Bank In An Unstable Market
π¦ Banking | π·οΈ Undervalued | π Recovery | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
First Merchants Corporation (FRME) has been oversold due to panic-selling in the regional banking market. Despite this, FRME remains stable, having demonstrated solid growth historically with a CAGR of 15.1% in total assets and 15.5% in loans from 2012 to 1Q23. The bank operates in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois, having 121 banking centers and total assets of $18.2 billion. FRME has a solid risk profile and abundant M&A opportunities in its operating markets. Despite the current selloff, the bank's valuation remains attractive, and the author predicts a target price of $41.9 per share (currently $26) in 1Q24 based on a P/E forward (FY1) multiple and EPS estimate for 1Q25 LTM. The author remains bullish on FRME unless the CRE market starts deteriorating and 1Q23 shows cracks in the bank's underwriting standards.
π·οΈ Top Value Trades
The most undervalued stock ideas
bebe stores ($BEBE) is currently at $3. I think it gets to $8-$10
ποΈ Consumer Retail | π·οΈ Undervalued | βοΈ Investor Letter | π Long Idea
BEBE is a post-reorganization retailer with two main income streams: income from joint ventures with brand manager Bluestar Alliance and revenue from Buddy's rent-to-own franchise locations. Despite a lackluster recent quarter compared to the previous year, earnings compared to the last three quarters show positive progress. The joint venture segment consistently brings in earnings, and although Buddy's has been volatile, cost inflation and lower gross margins are identified as significant factors in its performance. Despite the cessation of dividends as they wait for Buddy's to recover, BEBE's run-rate earnings of $0.60/share indicate potential for future profitability. If Buddy's recovers, the shares may reach a price target of $8-10. The stock currently appears attractive at $3/share, but it should be noted that this involves risks associated with post-COVID recovery situations.
RΓ©my Cointreau: 26% Down Since Start of 2022 on U.S. Cyclical Fears
πΈ Spirits | π·οΈ Undervalued |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article discusses the recent decline in shares of RΓ©my Cointreau (RCO) and concerns of a cyclical downturn in the business. RCO's FY23 sales update showed organic sales growth of 10% and a stable EBIT margin, but with a strong sales decline expected in H1, including a significant fall in the U.S. The article highlights RCO's premium+ portfolio and strong structural growth, with organic sales growth averaging 43.6% in FY19-23. The company's CEO has implemented a new strategy to increase RCO's value per case, optimize its portfolio, and improve its margins over the following 10 years. The article suggests that RCO's more premium portfolio should be capable of delivering a long-term EPS CAGR of 10%+ and recommends buying RCO shares, with a projected 10% IRR over time.
Intrepid Potash: Back In The Bargain Bin
πΉ Fertilizer Manufacturer | π·οΈ Undervalued |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The author previously exited their position in Intrepid Potash due to concerns about falling fertilizer prices and management's decision to invest in capital-intensive projects during this period. These issues have caused the share price to drop to $19/share. However, the author believes the market is overly penalizing the company, and that its robust asset base and cash flow potential support a share price of at least $40. Despite the risks of dropping fertilizer prices and high capital expenditures, the author views Intrepid Potash as a low-risk, high-uncertainty investment, given its substantial asset base providing downside protection. The worst-case scenario would involve an extended period of low fertilizer prices, leading to increased debt and a reduction in book value. Nevertheless, even in the event of the company's failure, the author estimates a minimal capital loss due to an $18/share liquidation estimate.
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