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- π€π Chinese Spin-off Offers Big Returns
π€π Chinese Spin-off Offers Big Returns
Plus a professional investor starts a new position, someone made a nightclub their biggest holding, and much more
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Our AI read and summarized 175 articles today from all over the internet (including professional investor letters, professional research reports, blog posts, Seeking Alpha articles, etc). Here are the 10 best, including:
π¨π³ The Alibaba spin-off offers big returns
π¦ A professional investor starts a new position
πΊ Someone made a nightclub their biggest holding
π° Much moreβ¦
π± Top Tech Trade Ideas
The best stock pitches about tech stocks
Alibaba ($BABA): Beijing Serves A 30%+ Restructuring Opportunity
π¨π³ China | π Spin-off | π¦ E-commerce | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Beijing plans to split Alibaba Group into six separate units, with the domestic e-commerce group remaining wholly owned and the other five units potentially becoming separately publicly listed entities. This restructuring is seen as an easing of China's regulatory crackdown on tech giants. A sum of the parts analysis suggests that the combined value of Alibaba's cash position and domestic e-commerce division already exceeds its current market price, indicating potential upside of over 30%. Despite potential operational and geopolitical risks, the author views the restructuring plan as a turning point in China's regulatory approach and believes it could unlock significant shareholder value. Other units of Alibaba, such as the Cloud Intelligence Group and Cainiao Logistics Group, could further boost the company's valuation.
Docebo ($DCBO) Research Report
π» Enterprise SaaS | π International Expansion | βοΈ Investor Letter | π Long Idea |
Docebo, the leading company in the Learning Management Solutions (LMS) software category, offers a product portfolio that is full-featured and user-friendly, producing recurring revenues. It has high efficiency in its S&M spend and has the potential to grow by 30% and generate EBITDA margins of 20-25% at maturity. The software's features include efficient online course delivery, tracking of learning progress, advanced reporting tools, and analytics. Docebo has a competitive advantage due to switching costs, social collaboration elements, user-generated content, AI, and multiple modules and integration. Its client list includes major companies such as Uber, Amazon AWS Cloud, Walmart, and Chipotle. However, the company saw a slowdown in customer growth in Q2 2022 due to the elongation of the enterprise sales cycle. To sustain growth, Docebo is concentrating on penetrating and expanding the enterprise division and extending geographically, starting with Europe. Additionally, management plans to invest in the business, particularly in G&A and R&D, which could lead to a 10% bump in EBIT margin. Despite competition and market disappointment at ACV deceleration, the author remains bullish on Docebo's potential for profitable growth in the future.
PubMatic, Inc. ($PUBM): Recovery in Digital and Programmatic Ads Likelier, as Displayed by PubMatic
π’ Ads | π Sector Turnaround | π Research Report | π Long Idea
The author presents both bullish and bearish arguments for PubMatic, a digital advertising platform. The bullish arguments highlight increasing revenue per client, a net-dollar retention rate above 100%, focus on supply path optimization, and success in connected TV digital advertising. Bearish arguments include struggles to grow market share due to dominant players like Google, pricing pressure, and competition from larger companies. PubMatic's Q1 results show increasing optimism in the advertising technology sector, and the author provides a $22 fair value ($12.62 currently) estimate for PubMatic, expecting single-digit revenue growth in 2023 and average annual growth of 13% through 2027. The company faces competition and the fragmented market could force aggressive pricing, pressuring revenue growth and margins. The author presents a bullish argument about PubMatic, with the company's capital expenditures around 15% of revenue for the last three years and no expected dividends in the next five years.
Euronet Worldwide ($EEFT): Expecting 2023 Record Revenue And Undervalued
π± Payment Processor | β¬οΈ Growth | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Euronet Worldwide, Inc., an international electronic payment processing company, reported double-digit sales growth, adjusted EBITDA growth, and adjusted EPS growth in Q1 2023. The company expects to deliver record revenue and adjusted EPS for the full year 2023, backed by improving travel trends and strong transaction growth trends in epay and Money Transfer. However, the company faces risks such as debt, potential new regulations, and dependence on third-party companies. The author's financial model predicts continued growth in withdrawal transactions due to recovery in travel, and expects revenue growth from new acquisitions and low-priced payment processing. Euronet also plans to expand its technology and business methods into other markets. Despite the risks, the author believes that Euronet's FCF growth will likely continue, and that the stock is undervalued under their DCF model. The company is exposed to a large number of regulations and varying legislation in the regions it operates in. The author's DCF model is conservative and includes assumptions of net income growth, D&A growth, growing stock-based compensation, growing prepaid expenses, growing deferred revenue, and growing income taxes payable.
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π¦ Top Financial Ideas
Any companies involved in banking, asset management, investing, etc.
New Position in Burford Capital ($BUR)
π¦ Asset Management | π·οΈ Undervalued | π Research Report | π Long Idea
Burford Capital, a niche asset manager focused on litigation financing, profits only when a claim is successful, resulting in an asymmetric return profile with small losses and large profits. Due to the closure of courts and a slowdown of the legal system caused by COVID-19, Burford has been under-earning. Despite this, Burford's investments have on average generated returns on invested capital in excess of 90% and annualized returns of approximately 30%. Burford has three main business lines: asset management, litigation finance, and ownership of YPF claims. The asset management business is estimated to be worth $4+ per share, the core litigation finance business is valued at approximately $12 per share, and the value of the YPF claims, applying a 50% "collection" discount, ranges from $5-$12.50 per share. The combined valuation of all businesses results in a range of $21-28.50 per share ($13.69 right now), with potential for substantial upside.
π’οΈ Top Oil / Gas / Energy Trade Ideas
The best stock pitches about oil, gas, and energy companies.
Matador Resources ($MTDR): Drilling For Dollars In New Mexico
π’οΈ Oil | β¬οΈ Bottom is In | π° Dividend | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) has been growing its reserves, output, and making strategic acquisitions, despite its stock price being affected by the general downturn in the energy sector. The company primarily focuses on the Delaware basin, utilizing innovative drilling technologies to cut costs and increase production. MTDR also operates a midstream company that offers crude gathering, water transport, and disposal. The company recently acquired acreage from Advance Energy for $1.6 billion, and its Q1 2023 results showed a 14% organic increase in output and net cash provided by operating activities of $339.5 million. Matador anticipates a 19% increase in average daily oil equivalent production from Q1 2023 to Q2 2023, primarily due to this acquisition. Despite being 20% below prices from three weeks ago, Matador's current pricing is not excessive compared to other companies, with a high side EBITDA of $1.9 bn of 3.3X EV. The company also pays a modest dividend of $0.60 per share. Analysts have viewed the company favorably, suggesting it could be an attractive investment opportunity given its growth proposition levered by controlled costs and expanding production.
Missed The Boat On Energy Stocks? Suncor Energy ($SU) Trades At 2009 Levels
π° Dividend | β‘οΈ Energy | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Suncor Energy Inc. reported a decline in Q1 profits, which was expected due to tough comparables. Despite this, the company has reduced leverage over the years, which has allowed it to increase dividends and share repurchases. The company announced a significant acquisition from TotalEnergies SE, expected to be highly accretive to shareholders, but it may increase leverage in the short term. The author sees Suncor Energy as undervalued compared to other energy stocks and reiterates a strong buy rating, pointing to the company's ability to generate high cash flow, its robust share repurchase program, and the potential for multiple expansion. However, risks include commodity price volatility, potential backlash against oil sands operations, and the possibility of management using reduced leverage ratios for M&A instead of debt paydown.
π Top Auto Ideas
The best stock pitches for automotive and EV companies.
Plug Power Inc. ($PLUG): Continued Focus on Buildout of Hydrogen Plants and Scaling Manufacturing
π Electric Vehicles | π Hydrogen | π Research Report | π Long Idea |
Equity Analyst Brett Castelli maintains a $14 per share fair value estimate for Plug Power, despite the company's shares plummeting 14% following its Q1 results. This is attributed to a perceived downside to the company's original 2023 guidance. Despite this, Castelli continues to view shares as attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the growth potential of hydrogen, though with a high risk-reward. Plug Power is focusing on the buildout of green hydrogen plants and scaling manufacturing. It plans to begin production at its first liquid hydrogen plant in Georgia in Q2. Plug's balance sheet is being closely monitored due to the company's current cash burn and volatile financial markets. However, as hydrogen plants come online, it is expected that the company will be able to raise leverage against the assets, reducing the strain on its cash balance. Plug Power is seen as a leader in the green hydrogen economy and has partnerships with leading global companies. It, however, faces competition from battery electric technology and other well-capitalized competitors.
π° Top Dividend Ideas
For those of you that like your holdings to pay you some π° a few times a year
Worthington Industries ($WOR): A Stable Steel Play And A Great Dividend
π Safe Bet | ποΈ Infrastructure |π° Dividend | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Worthington Industries, a steel products manufacturer, has experienced declining yearly revenues but an increase in QoQ results due to automotive demand and steel production growth. The company has a strong dividend history and higher than average leveraged FCF margins. The trend of deglobalization and the US government's incentives for domestic manufacturing could benefit WOR. Despite a 20% YoY decrease due to steel price fluctuations, net sales were $1.1 billion, resulting in a low p/s ratio. The company is focused on improving margins and ROA, and its building products segment saw a 14% YoY increase. It has a strong cash position of $267 million, but faces risks from commodity fluctuations. The company plans to separate its steel processing segment by 2024, which could offer investors a pure steel play. Worthington's future estimates are uncertain, but management is confident in demand. The next few quarters will focus on margin maintenance and growth. While growth may slow in 2023, it is expected to pick up in 2024 and 2025. The company offers a solid dividend opportunity with a P/E in line with the sector and manageable net debt/EBITDA. The author rates WOR as a "buy" and anticipates the separation of the steel segment in 2024.
ποΈ Top Retail Ideas
Companies selling clothes, electronics, groceries, or other goods.
Costco ($COST): The Stock Is A Buy, Valuation Remains Cheap
π₯¦ Groceries |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Costco Wholesale Corporation is identified as one of the best-managed and successful companies in the US, consistently maximizing shareholder returns and outperforming major indexes. The company has seen a total return of 453% over the last decade and a 70% increase since mid-2020, benefiting from the current inflationary economic environment. The author rates Costco as a buy due to its competitive pricing, cost savings for fuel, and significant potential for growth compared to competitors like Walmart. Costco's membership program has been a key factor in retaining market share, with membership growth accelerating since early 2021. The company's net margins are near record highs at 2.65%. Despite rising costs, management has prioritized offering low prices. Costco operates 851 warehouses, and plans to open 24 new stores in 2023, with international sales doubling in the last 8 years. The company's balance sheet is strong, with $14 billion in cash and $9 billion in manageable debt. It's expected that Costco will continue to grow earnings at a double-digit rate for the next 7 years, and if growth targets are met, the forward price to earnings ratio would be below 20 within 5 years at current valuations.
π‘ Other Ideas
Any stock ideas that donβt fit into the above sections
My Largest Investment: Tours And Management Meetings With RCI Hospitality ($RICK)
π Commercial Real Estate | πΊ Nightclubs |βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
RCI Hospitality Holdings is the only publicly listed adult nightclub company that both acquires real estate and operates it for cash flow. The company has the potential to buy high-quality adult nightclubs at a lower EBITDA multiple, earning a significant initial annual return on new acquisitions, and can grow cash flow further through value-add programs. RCI has managed to grow its free cash flow per share by around 25% per year on average and has earned an 832% total return since early 2016. The company also has numerous acquisition opportunities and is the only buyer in this space with access to public capital. Management plans to grow its FCF per share by 30% annually over the next three years, primarily through acquiring new clubs. The author sees limited risk of a secular decline in RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s assets and believes the stock is priced at a very low multiple for a company with such growth prospects. If RCI achieves its growth targets, investors could potentially earn another 3x in the next three years. RCI remains the author's largest investment today.
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