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- π€π 88% Returns on Palantir
π€π 88% Returns on Palantir
Plus 55% upside potential in Alibaba, 7% dividends with AT&T, and more...
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Our AI read and summarized 177 articles today from all over the internet to find the best trade ideas to help you make more money in the stock market.
What youβll find in this email:
π¨π³ 55% Upside Potential in Alibaba
π° 7% Dividends with AT&T
π» The bearish v bullish case for Apple ($AAPL)
π€πππ± Much moreβ¦
Want to see all of the trade ideas we found today? They are all available on our website π
β
π°π Winning Trade
This section highlights a trade that was featured in a previous email that has performed well.
Palantir ($PLTR): GAAP Profitability Has Great Implications
ποΈ Government | π€ AI | π Long Idea
Ticker: $PLTR
Date Published: 2023-04-19
Return: +88% ($8.49 β $16)
Palantir (PLTR) has several bullish indicators including its recent GAAP profitability, expected continuation of GAAP profitability, various use cases for AI, strong cash flow margins, and potential for 30% net margins in the long term, positioning it as a top pick for a tech recovery. Neutral arguments suggest that management may use acquisitions or special transactions to close expectation-reality gaps, possibly influenced by macroeconomic factors. Bearish perspectives point to PLTR's slow revenue growth, particularly in non-US commercial revenue, and the company's surprise GAAP profit resulting from a non-cash gain. Risks for PLTR include competition, future predictions, inaccurate guidance, and lack of insider buying. Despite this, the author believes that undervalued tech stocks like PLTR are optimal for positioning ahead of a recovery in tech stocks, expecting strong performance from PLTR in a broader sector recovery.
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π± Top Tech Trade Ideas
Read all of the tech trade ideas from today by clicking here
Apple: The AI Powerhouse Quietly Reshaping The Tech Landscape
Ticker: $AAPL | Current Price: $184 | Price Target: N/A
π€ AI | π±Technology | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article discusses Apple's impressive position as a leading AI investment, despite the media's focus on India as "the next China." Apple's strategic integration of AI into its product line aims to create a more personalized, convenient, and immersive user experience, enhancing its competitive advantage in a fiercely competitive market. Apple's decision to design its own CPU and AI chips sets it apart in the tech industry and allows for a more seamless and efficient user experience. Financially, Apple demonstrates robust performance with strong revenue growth, impressive cost management, healthy cash flows, and investor-friendly activities such as share repurchases and consistent growth in EPS. However, Apple's premium valuation metrics suggest high market expectations for its future performance, which potential investors should factor into their investment decisions and pay close attention to any indicators of elevated risk. Overall, the author maintains a positive outlook on Apple and sees potential for the company to deliver impressive returns in the long run.
Alibaba: Buy The Undervalued Chinese Bull
Ticker: $BABA | Current Price: $90 | Price Target: $140 (+55%)
π¦ E-commerce | π¨π³ China | βοΈ Cloud | AI π€ | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The author is bullish on Alibaba (BABA) stock post-4Q23 results, despite a sequential drop in revenue from last quarter. The author believes that Chinese demand rebounding in 1H23 was overestimated, expecting a delayed recovery in 2H23. Alibaba still derives the bulk of its revenues from its China commerce business, accounting for 65% of total revenues this quarter. The company plans to spin off its cloud segment into a separate, publicly traded company while simultaneously facing pressure on its e-commerce revenue in China. However, the author sees positive signs of recovery and recommends investors take advantage of the pullback and explore entry points at current levels. Alibaba stock is undervalued for its growth prospects and is trading at a relatively cheap P/E ratio compared to its peers. Wall Street analysts are bullish on the stock, with a median sell-side price target of $140, with a potential upside of 62-63%. The author remains bullish on Alibaba as a value stock with improving profitability, expecting revenue growth to rebound in 2024 and seeing attractive entry points at current levels. They recommend buying the pullback.
AMD: A Pause Before The Real AI Ramp
Ticker: $AMD | Current Price: $127 | Price Target: N/A
β‘οΈ Semiconductor | π€ AI | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article discusses Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and their lack of announcement of new AI chips or partnerships at a recent event, causing the stock to drop. However, the author remains ultra Bullish on AMD stock, citing their Data Center chips and the forecasted $150 billion total addressable market for AI by 2027. The MI300 chip is the only competitor to Nvidia in the GPU chip market, offering significant AI performance boosts and a TCO advantage over Nvidia. AMD faces the risk of not participating in a segment that could drive a large majority of Data Center growth over the next 5+ years. The author suggests that the MI300 AI chip line up has a huge potential for AMD's future success, with a path to a $5+ EPS in the next few years. The catalyst for a potential increase in stock value could be 2H guidance following Q2 earnings or the launch of the MI300. The author is bullish on AMD's potential for growth in the year ahead.
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π° Top Dividend Ideas
For those of you that like your holdings to pay you some π° a few times a year
There's No Reason AT&T Won't Pay Your Dividends (7% Dividend)
Ticker: $T | Price: $16 | Price Target: N/A
π Telecommunication |π° Dividend | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
AT&T's stock has underperformed compared to market benchmarks and rivals Verizon and T-Mobile this year, with year-to-date declines of 15%. Weak quarterly free cash flows in April have increased investor concerns over execution risks and lengthened customer payment cycles, potentially putting dividends at risk. However, the bullish thesis of attractive dividends with durably profitable growth remains largely intact, with business staying resilient and demand trends normalizing. The underlying business fundamentals remain robust, with AT&T's mission-critical role in connectivity services and prudent management of pricing to stay competitive without compromising margins. The current 7% dividend yield and resilient business fundamentals make AT&T's stock a viable income pick at current levels. Management has reaffirmed the full-year FCF guidance of $16 billion, with spending largely having already "peaked in the first quarter". The expectation for improved FCF generation through the remainder of the year is also consistent with capex spend pertaining to "historically high levels of investments in 5G and fiber" that are expected to moderate over time with scale. AT&T's durable revenues from its core wireless connectivity business, profitable growth prospects, and attractive capital return program make it an opportune risk-reward set-up for investors seeking a haven amid the uncertain market climate.
βοΈ Top Energy Trade Ideas
Read all of the oil/gas trades from today by clicking here
Daqo New Energy: IRA Domestic Content Clarity Could Provide A Boost
Ticker: $DQ | Current Price: $41.76 | Price Target: $59.70 (+43%)
βοΈ Solar | π¨π³ China | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article discusses Daqo New Energy, a Chinese ADR that has faced geopolitical risks due to its production location in Xinjiang, China. Despite this, the stock remains undervalued and has tailwinds for recovery ahead. DQ has diversified towards higher quality N-type polysilicon products that command a premium spot pricing domestically compared to regular polysilicon spot prices. Made-in-Mongolia polysilicon may sidestep pricing headwinds and improve DQ's top and bottom line, exempt from the ongoing Xinjiang solar trade ban. Solar developers may claim up to 40% in tax credits through the IRA, allowing a maximum of 60% in solar components to be made outside the US, which may be a critical tailwind to DQ. Despite projections of a drastic decline in FY2025 EPS compared to FY2022 levels, DQ has an upside potential of +46.6% to a price target of $59.70 based on its normalized P/E of 8x. DQ is rated as a Buy due to its attractive risk-reward ratio and technical support since October 2020.
π§ͺ Top Biotech/Pharma Trade Ideas
Read all of the biotech trade ideas for today by clicking here
Ovid Therapeutics: Bullish Outlook Strengthened By Positive 2-Year Open-Label Trial Results
Ticker: $OVID | Current Price: $3.89 | Price Target: $5.36 (+38%)
π§ͺ Biotech | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
The article analyzes Ovid Therapeutics and their TAK-935 drug for rare seizure disorders, specifically Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome (LGS). The market for these disorders is narrow and highly competitive, with three established players already present. TAK-935 has shown strong efficacy in patients with Dravet Syndrome in its phase 2 clinical trial, but did not show effectiveness in treating seizures in patients with LGS, which would result in a two-thirds reduction in the total addressable market. The article discusses the potential efficacy of TAK-935 in treating patients with DS and LGS, as well as the risks and financials of OVID. The valuation of Takeda's drug TAK-935 for treating Dravet Syndrome and Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome is also discussed. The article concludes with a BUY rating and a price target of $5.36 per share (38% upside), but notes that considerable risks remain concerning clinical trials, competition, and pricing, which could significantly diminish potential cash flows.
π Top Auto Ideas
Read all of the auto ideas from today by clicking here
Admiral: 6% Fall After Citi Downgrade is Another Opportunity (plus a 5% dividend)
Ticker: (OTCMKTS: $AMIGY) | Current Price: $28 | Price Target: $42 (+50%)
π Auto | π¦ Insurance | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Bullish arguments for Admiral shares include their current low valuation, positive industry trends, and the company's cost advantage in the UK motor insurance market. The author sees a total return of 54% by 2025 year-end and recommends buying Admiral shares. The company has raised prices ahead of peers and is expected to be more profitable in 2023. Admiral's businesses outside of UK Motor are not significant to the investment case. The company also has a dividend yield of 5.2%. Bearish arguments include Citi's downgrade of Admiral to Sell due to concerns about the UK industry motor combined ratio and earnings expectations for H1 2023. Admiral's earnings may be volatile in the short term due to elevated claim cost inflation in 2022. Reserve releases were equivalent to around 40% of U.K. Motor PBT each year before COVID, but in 2022, current-year underwriting profit was negative while reserve releases and profit commission were equivalent to 78% of U.K. Motor's PBT.
π Top Short Ideas
Read all of the short ideas for today by clicking here
MicroStrategy: Price Drop In Bitcoin Significantly Increases Risk
Ticker: $MSTR | Current Price: $285 | Price Target: N/A
πͺ Bitcoin | βοΈ Cloud | βοΈ Blog Post | π Short Idea
The article is bearish on MicroStrategy, which the author believes is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin fund posing as a company. The author suggests that investors can buy Bitcoin themselves and that MicroStrategy has leveraged up on Bitcoin to the point where it might not be able to pay back its creditors. The author is worried that this is turning into a cult-like speculation and that Bitcoin Maximalists treat Bitcoin like a religion. The article discusses the use of pot odds analysis to evaluate the potential downside and upside of a long position, using option payouts to get a better view of the potential outcomes. The author looks at MicroStrategy's debt stack to assess bankruptcy risk and notes that the company has about 138k of Bitcoin worth $3.588 billion. The author calculates a breakeven price for MicroStrategy and notes that the price of Bitcoin would have to go down in 2025 and stay down till 2027 for MicroStrategy to not be able to pay its debt. The author sees two main risks to their bearish thesis: Bitcoin going higher and the company's software and cloud-based business turning into a cash cow.
ποΈ Top Infrastructure / Industrial Ideas
Read all of the industrial stock ideas for today by clicking here
ZIM Integrated: Panama Drought Is A Major Catalyst
Ticker: $ZIM | Price: $13.61 | Price Target: $16 (+18%)
π’ Shipping | ποΈ Industrial | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. could experience a price surge due to temporary draft restrictions in the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought, which could lead to temporary rate increases on the Pacific and specific long-haul Latin American trades. However, the supply/demand ratio is not in favor of ZIM and its peers in the next few years, and near-term indicators suggest weak demand and an oversupplied market. The overall risk of significant supply chain disruption and stress that would positively impact the company's earnings doesn't seem to be priced in. A recovery in consumer demand is needed to see a truly impressive rate hike against the backdrop of such a severely negative supply-demand imbalance. Goldman Sachs analysts see a price target for ZIM in the region of $16 per share range. The author suggests looking at ZIM as a very long-term holding and not caring about price, and using systematic cost averaging.
π¨ Top Event-Driven Ideas
Companies going through acquisitions or with other upcoming catalysts/events/rumors that could cause the stock to pop.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company: Activist Pressure Might Catalyze A Turnaround
Ticker: $GT | Current Price: $13.38 | Price Target: $ (+139%)
π Auto | ποΈ Retail | π¨ Event Driven | βοΈ Blog Post | π Long Idea
Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has sent a letter to The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, pushing for two initiatives to help drive a share price re-rate. The first initiative is the monetization of the company-owned retail stores, which might be worth 65% of the company's current market cap. The second initiative is the improvement of operating margins, which might come from expected operating margin improvements in the remaining tire manufacturing business. Elliott intends to nominate five directors to GTβs 12-director board, and the chances of a near-term settlement between the activist and the company are solid given the businessβ underperformance in recent years as well as Elliottβs activism track record. The company is expected to reach $250 million in annualized Cooper synergies by the middle of next year, which could create optimism for investors. The retail segment of the company operates in a highly consolidated market and may attract significant acquisition interest from strategic and financial players. However, GT is highly leveraged with a net debt of $7.9bn as of March '23, which is a risk.
π» Bearish v π Bullish
Company: Apple ($AAPL)
Bullish Reasons:
Service Segment Continues to Grow: Apple's Services segment continues to grow, with the company now having more than 935 million paid subscriptions. This diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign for the company's future growth.
The Number of Active Devices Continues to Grow: Apple's installed base of active devices continues to grow, even during difficult macroeconomic conditions. This growth is coming from every major product category and geographic segment, with strong double-digit increases in emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Client Loyalty: Apple's iPhone and iOS operating system have consistently been rated at the head of the pack in terms of customer loyalty, engagement, and security, which bodes well for long-term customer retention.
Bearish Reasons:
Mac Revenue Decline: Mac revenue was $7.7 billion, down 29% year-over-year. This was due to a challenging comparison against last year's launch of the completely reimagined MacBook Pros, the macro environment, and significant foreign exchange headwinds.
iPhone Revenue Decline: Apple's iPhone revenue came in at $65.8 billion for the quarter, down 8% year-over-year. However, on a constant currency basis, iPhone revenue was roughly flat. This indicates that the company's flagship product is facing challenges.
Macroeconomic Environment: They sell premium products at premium prices which could be affected during an economic downturn.
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