πŸ€–πŸ“ˆ 73% Upside for $MFBP

Plus the Alibaba spin-off will unlock a ton of value, a 7.3% dividend for an oil company, and much more...

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Our AI read and summarized 203 articles today from all over the internet to find the best trade ideas to help you make more money in the stock market.

What you’ll find in this email:

  • 🏦 A bank valued at $45M received $80M in funds (73% Upside)

  • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Alibaba spin-offs have a ton of opportunity

  • πŸ’° 7.3% dividend for an oil company

  • 🐻 The bearish v bullish cases for Alibaba

  • πŸ“±πŸ“žπŸ·οΈ Much more…

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πŸ“± Top Tech Trade Ideas

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Alibaba ($BABA): Market Underestimates The Direct Benefit Of Spinning Off Company Divisions

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China | πŸ€– AI | ☁️ Cloud | πŸ’Ό Spin-off | ✏️ Blog Post | πŸ“ˆ Long Idea

Alibaba's board has approved the full spin-off of Cloud Intelligence Group, with plans to include outside strategic investors in the group through private financing before completing a public listing within the next 12 months. Other divisions, including Freshippo and Cainiao, are also planning initial public offerings in the next 6-18 months, with a controlling stake remaining in the ownership of Alibaba Group. Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group is exploring the possibility of raising external capital to support business expansion in the global market. Despite a stable financial report, the macro environment presents both challenges and opportunities, with a focus on attracting and retaining quality users, maintaining the consumer mindset, and creating new demand through supply-side innovation. Alibaba Cloud will focus on leveraging historic opportunities in cloud computing and AI to maximize its market potential. The company looks 30% cheaper than industry average multiples and still cheaper than most core competitors, with a positive view of the company and a belief that all levels below $90 are undervalued.

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πŸ›’οΈ Top Oil / Gas / Energy Trade Ideas

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Enbridge ($ENB): High-Quality 7.3% Midstream Yield Available For Sale

πŸ›’οΈ Oil |πŸ’° Dividend | ✏️ Blog Post | πŸ“ˆ Long Idea

Enbridge is a well-run midstream firm with a diversified pipeline and storage portfolio, predictable cash flows, and a growing portfolio of on/offshore windfarm assets. Enbridge's Q1 earnings were solid, and the company confirmed its financial outlook for FY 2023. Enbridge has a growth opportunity in the U.S. Gulf Coast for liquified natural gas export, with expected 30% growth in LNG export volumes. Enbridge is a Dividend Aristocrat that has paid a growing dividend for 28 years, and its dividend yield of 7.3% looks solid with a confirmed outlook in place. However, Enbridge is a fossil fuel-focused energy company, which exposes it to regulatory headwinds in the context of a broader transition of the energy system. A shift towards alternative energy sources could benefit the company's exposure to on/offshore windfarms but also hurt its core fossil fuel business. Regulatory limits on expansion projects, especially regarding Enbridge’s pipeline system, could result in lower EBITDA and distributable cash flow growth going forward. Enbridge's shares are trading at a premium to other midstream firms, but the author believes the aristocrat premium is well-deserved.

πŸ“ž Top Telecommunications Trade Ideas

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AT&T Inc. ($T): Cooler Heads Should Prevail as Amazon Seeks to Enter Wireless

πŸ“ž Telecommunications | πŸ“ Research Report | πŸ“ˆ Long Idea

The article discusses the wireless industry and the potential risks and opportunities for companies such as Amazon, Dish Network, and AT&T. Amazon's entrance into the wireless resale business poses a risk, but carriers are expected to remain rational due to parity among the three national carriers. Dish Network is seen as a wildcard and could strike a poor deal with Amazon out of desperation. The author is bullish on AT&T, expecting steadily improving growth and increasing margins over the next several years as its wireless and fiber network investments pay off. However, the author notes that regulation and technological change are the primary uncertainties facing AT&T, with wireless and broadband services being considered necessary for social inclusion and regulators controlling the flow of wireless spectrum into the industry. The author also highlights AT&T's weak balance sheet and past capital allocation decisions that have destroyed shareholder value. Despite these challenges, AT&T has invested in expanding its fiber optic network under new CEO John Stankey's leadership, which will improve its position but also dent cash flow over the next few years.

πŸ“‰ Top Short Ideas

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Hess Corporation ($HES): Near-Term Commodity Outlook Drags Down Our Fair Value to $84 Per Share

πŸ›’οΈ Oil/Gas | ⬇️ Downgrade | πŸ“ Research Report | πŸ“‰ Short Idea

Hess' fair value estimate has been lowered to $84 per share from $93 due to the recent deterioration in near-term commodity prices. However, Hess has efficiently streamlined its portfolio and shifted focus to more lucrative oil and gas assets, including its 30% working interest in the Exxon-operated Stabroek block and its acreage in the Bakken Shale play. The Guyana assets will be an engine for rapid growth in the next few years, with over 30 discoveries to date and an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Hess still aims to distribute 75% of its free cash, but heavy upfront spending in Guyana reduces that cash flow. Hess has a major advantage in its partnership with ExxonMobil in the Stabroek Block, which has exceptional economics and massive potential resources. However, Hess is exposed to a range of potential environmental, social, and governance issues, with greenhouse gas emissions being the biggest threat. The article assigns a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of High due to the volatility of crude and natural gas prices. Hess has prioritized its most profitable assets for growth and maximizes cash flow potential of legacy assets. Management is committed to returning cash flows to shareholders through base dividend hikes and buybacks, but the stock may be overvalued for buybacks.

πŸ’° Top Dividend Ideas

For those of you that like your holdings to pay you some πŸ’° a few times a year


Adding Ardmore Shipping ($ASC) To My Value Portfolio

⛴️ Shipping | πŸ’° Dividend | ✏️ Blog Post

Ardmore Shipping (ASC) is a value portfolio entry that provides maritime transportation for petroleum and chemical products worldwide. The company operates in a cyclical industry where demand is forecasted to grow while capacity remains relatively constant. Increased demand is due to war-related dislocations, specifically the Russian invasion of Ukraine and resulting trade sanctions that disrupted normal trade routes. ASC's revenues and cash flows from operations have surged due to this new paradigm. The company has a well thought out capital allocation plan that prioritizes maintaining the fleet, keeping debt leverage below 40%, having a "war chest" available, and returning excess capital to investors via dividends and potential stock buybacks. ASC has successfully deleveraged itself and reinstated a dividend, currently yielding 6.7%. The author has added ASC to their value portfolio due to impressive valuation metrics and believes the company's massive deleveraging will allow it to continue to outperform financially even if earnings are cut in half during the next cycle. Risks for ASC include being greatly impacted by economic cycles and demand shocks, but the company's deleveraging and lack of new ships being built worldwide have somewhat diminished these risks. The author believes ASC's wise use of windfall from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to deleverage will lead to higher profits and dividends in the future and the ability to take advantage of bargains during a cyclical low. They are long a full position and intend to hold the stock long term.

πŸ—οΈ Top Infrastructure / Industrial Ideas

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New Investment: Howden Joinery Group plc (LSE: $HWDN)

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ United Kingdom | πŸ”ͺ Kitchen Supplier | βœ‰οΈ Investor Letter | πŸ“ˆ Long Idea

Howden Joinery Group plc is a UK-based kitchen supplier with a strong market share and loyal trade customers. The company's depot model allows for local autonomy and adaptation to market conditions. Howdens manufactures only simple, high-volume products in-house and outsources the rest. The company has industry-leading gross margins and returns on invested capital. Howdens has opportunities for growth through expanding its depot base in the UK and France, as well as making existing depots more profitable. The company is investing in digital capabilities and marketing to increase brand awareness among homeowners. Howdens' business model is focused on repair, maintenance, and improvement, which is more resilient to economic cycles. The company has significant pricing power and has not seen significant sensitivity to price increases. Overall, the company appears well-suited to handle challenges and is an attractive investment opportunity due to its robust business model, strong cash flows, and opportunity to return capital to shareholders.

🏦 Top Financial Ideas

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M&F Bancorp (OTCMKTS: $MFBP): A Hidden Gem In The Banking Sector

🏦 Bank | 🏷️ Undervalued | ✏️ Blog Post | πŸ“ˆ Long Idea

M&F Bancorp is positioned for growth despite declines in stock price due to capital investment from the ECIP and benefiting from higher rates. The bank has a low percentage of held to maturity securities and is only levered 4-to-1, making it less susceptible to losses from these securities. M&F Bancorp reported Q1 deposits down only 2% QoQ and received $80 million in funding from the ECIP, giving the bank liquidity and flexibility. The fair market value of the ECIP program could be conservatively valued at 25% of face value, leading to an implied tangible book value of $81.25 million, representing a 73% upside from today's price. M&F's stock price has increased more than 200% over the past 12 months, and earnings are up 125%. However, liquidity and credit risk are concerns associated with investing in MFBP, a small-cap bank.

🐻 Bearish v πŸ‚ Bullish

Company: Alibaba ($BABA)

Bullish Reasons:

  1. Spin-off of Company Divisions: Alibaba's board has approved a full spin-off of Cloud Intelligence Group, along with the IPO of Freshippo and Cianiao. This strategic move could unlock value and drive growth for the company

  2. Strong Revenue Growth: According to the latest 10-Q filing, Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, was RMB 187,395 million, an increase of 22% compared to the same quarter last year. This indicates a strong growth trajectory for the company.

  3. Positive Analyst Ratings: Despite the recent challenges, many analysts remain positive about Alibaba's long-term prospects. For instance, Morgan Stanley maintained its "Overweight" rating on the stock, citing the company's strong fundamentals and potential for growth.

Bearish Reasons:

  1. Regulatory Challenges: Alibaba has been facing regulatory challenges in China, which have resulted in fines and increased scrutiny of the company's business practices. This has created uncertainty about the company's future prospects.

  2. Slowdown in User Growth: Alibaba's annual active consumers in China reached 891 million, an increase of 32 million from the 12-month period ended December 31, 2022. While this is still growth, it represents a slowdown compared to previous periods.

  3. Increased Competition: Alibaba faces increasing competition in the e-commerce sector from rivals such as JD.com and Pinduoduo. This could potentially impact the company's market share and profitability.

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